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Investing.com - Citizens has reiterated its Market Outperform rating on Genius Sports Ltd. (NYSE:GENI) with a price target of $15.00 ahead of the company’s first investor day in nearly four years. Currently trading at $9.09, the stock shows potential upside of 65% to the analyst target. InvestingPro data indicates GENI’s RSI suggests the stock is in oversold territory, following a 10% decline over the past six months.
The firm expects the upcoming investor day to focus on EBITDA margin progression from the current 20-30% range, free cash flow metrics, and the trajectory of the media business. Citizens noted that Genius Sports’ fundamental thesis has remained largely consistent since its previous investor day in early 2022. The company’s financial position appears solid, with InvestingPro data showing it holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet and maintains a healthy current ratio of 1.73.
While Genius Sports’ 2022 outlook produced mixed results, with revenue falling below medium-term targets, the company exceeded expectations for costs, EBITDA, and margins in 2023. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth of 30.7% over the last twelve months, reaching $604.5 million. Citizens believes early industry assumptions about sports betting operators’ ability to build competitive U.S. products were overstated.
The research firm highlighted that major operators like DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) and FanDuel (NYSE:FLUT), which control approximately 70% of the sports betting market share, are increasingly focused on driving higher in-play betting mix. In-play handle currently represents about half of their respective businesses.
Citizens projects that 2026 could mark a meaningful inflection point for in-play betting, potentially shifting Genius Sports toward a more lucrative take-rate model as the industry evolves beyond its current focus on pre-game parlays.
In other recent news, Genius Sports reported several key developments. Benchmark reiterated its Buy rating on Genius Sports, maintaining a $16.00 price target following the company’s acquisition of Sports Innovation Lab, a fan data and analytics firm. This acquisition aims to enhance Genius Sports’ capabilities in aggregating and analyzing fan engagement data. Additionally, Citizens maintained its Market Outperform rating on Genius Sports, with a price target of $15.00, indicating a positive outlook on the company’s prospects.
Wells Fargo initiated coverage on Genius Sports with an Equal Weight rating and a $10.00 price target, basing this on a 2027 estimated EBITDA target. In a strategic move, Genius Sports announced a change in its independent auditor from WithumSmith+Brown to KPMG, effective for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. This change follows a thorough review process by the company’s Audit Committee. Furthermore, Bryan Castellani has been appointed as the new Chief Financial Officer, taking on responsibilities for global finance operations.
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