Janux stock plunges after hours following mCRPC trial data
Investing.com -- UBS analysts expect gold to stay supported through 2026 as a mix of resilient official-sector demand, persistent macro uncertainty and ongoing de-dollarisation continues to underpin the yellow metal.
Follow analyst-backed picks in gold and mining stocks by upgrading to InvestingPro - get 60% off today
The bank says gold entered 2025 as a “consensus long” and remains so heading into next year. While the bullion at times looked like a crowded momentum trade, analysts note that traditional measures such as Comex positioning and ETF flows do not show signs of extreme bullishness.
Instead, the rally has been “supported by broad-based buying reflecting a structural shift in private and official sector demand,” a team led by Daniel Major wrote.
After a sharp run-up between late August and mid-October, gold consolidated, but UBS argues that the underlying backdrop still points to robustness.
“In our view the macro logic for gold remains robust and we do not see the set-up for a bear market in 2026,” the analysts wrote.
The team believes central banks will continue buying gold, citing expectations for slower economic growth, sticky inflation, a softer U.S. dollar and elevated risk premia and uncertainty. These conditions, analysts note, are the opposite of those that defined the last five major gold bear markets over the past half-century.
UBS sees continued central-bank accumulation even at higher price levels, and points to the ongoing debasement and de-dollarisation trade as additional support for allocations to bullion.
The bank’s strategists forecast average prices of $4,675 an ounce in 2026, implying roughly 10% upside from current spot levels, but they also “see attractive risk vs reward if prices remain range bound (+/- $4,000/oz).”
Gold-mining equities have already responded to the stronger pricing environment. The GDX index is up more than 140% year-to-date, outperforming bullion by about 80%. The sector is generating record free cash flow, balance sheets are in better shape, and large-cap miners have been disciplined on capital spending and mergers.
Analysts see potential for renewed multiple expansion if operational reliability continues to improve and miners rebuild investor confidence. They highlight that gold equities are still pricing in roughly $3,725 an ounce on a 10-year average EV/EBITDA basis, below prevailing spot levels.
UBS’s top picks are Barrick Mining, Newmont Corp., Endeavour Mining, SSR Mining, and Franco-Nevada Corp.