Oil prices retreat further on oversupply fears; OPEC sees surplus in 2026

Investing.com-- Oil prices fell to a three-week low Thursday, extending recent losses on reinforced fears of a global supply glut. 

At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), Brent oil futures for January fell 0.4% to $62.48 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.4% to $58.27 a barrel.

Both contracts lost around 4% in the previous session, weighed by data from the American Petroleum Institute indicating that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week that ended November 7.

The more widely followed EIA weekly inventory report will be released later in the session.

OPEC now sees small surplus in 2026

Adding to the negativity was the news that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has shifted its forecasts to see a small supply surplus in 2026. 

OPEC, in a monthly report, cited production increases by the cartel and higher supply from other producers, and also trimmed its demand outlook for 2026. 

The group forecast 2026 oil demand at 43 million barrels per day (bpd). This implies a supply overhang of 20,000 bpd if the cartel continues to produce oil at current levels.

OPEC’s forecast for a surplus now brings it in line with forecasts from the International Energy Administration, although the latter expects a much larger surplus. The IEA will release its monthly report later on Thursday.

OPEC has steadily ramped up production so far this year, and plans to increase production further in December. While the cartel did outline plans to halt any further production increases in Q1 2026, its recent output hikes were a major source of anxiety over a 2026 supply glut. 

U.S. government shutdown ends 

Oil prices took very little relief from U.S. lawmakers voting to end the country’s longest ever government shutdown.

The U.S. House of Representatives late Wednesday passed a bill aimed at unlocking funding and ending the longest ever government shutdown, with President Donald Trump signing the measure into law. 

The bill– which will keep the government funded until at least January 30, was passed in a 222 to 209 vote, with 216 Republicans and six Democrats voting in favor of the measure.

Passage of the bill helps clear some uncertainty over U.S. fuel demand, given that the shutdown caused thousands of flight cancellations across the country. 

The end of the shutdown will also allow for the release of official U.S. economic readings, granting markets renewed clarity on the world’s largest fuel consumer. 

Ambar Warrick contributed to this article

.