Baldwin Insurance Q3 2025 slides: Revenue grows 8% while organic growth slows to 5%

Baldwin Insurance Group Inc (NYSE:BWIN) released its third-quarter 2025 earnings presentation, showing mixed results with revenue growth of 8% year-over-year to $365.4 million, while organic growth slowed to 5% from 14% in the same period last year. The company's stock rose 2.77% to $22.63 in aftermarket trading following the release.

Quarterly Performance Highlights

Baldwin Insurance reported total revenue of $365.4 million for Q3 2025, representing an 8% increase from the $338.9 million reported in Q3 2024. However, the company posted a net loss of $30.2 million, more than double the $14.5 million loss recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.31, slightly above analyst expectations of $0.30, but down 6% from $0.33 in Q3 2024.

As shown in the following comprehensive overview of the company's financial performance:

The company's adjusted EBITDA remained essentially flat at $72.5 million compared to $72.8 million in Q3 2024, despite the revenue growth. This resulted in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%, down from 21% in the prior year period. On a positive note, adjusted free cash flow increased 26% to $41.8 million from $33.2 million in Q3 2024.

Detailed Financial Analysis

Baldwin's performance varied across its three main operating segments. The company's presentation provided a detailed breakdown of revenue by business unit:

The Mainstreet Insurance Solutions segment showed particular weakness, with organic revenue declining by 2% in Q3 2025 compared to the same period last year:

The company's organic revenue growth of 5% in Q3 2025 represents a significant slowdown from the 14% growth achieved in Q3 2024. This deceleration was evident across all business segments as shown in the reconciliation:

CEO Trevor Baldwin addressed this slowdown during the earnings call, noting that the insurance market is currently in transition. He highlighted that the company faces a 5.7% headwind in renewal premium changes and that softer employment conditions are affecting the employee benefits segment with an 8% headwind.

Debt Position & Cash Flow

Baldwin Insurance maintains a substantial debt position, with $1.67 billion in total debt outstanding as of September 30, 2025. This includes $600 million in Senior Secured Notes at 7.125% interest, $1.004 billion in Term Loans at 6.64% interest, and $66 million drawn from its Revolving Facility.

The following slide details the company's debt structure and available borrowing capacity:

Despite the significant debt load, the company reported that its net leverage is on track to reach 4 times by year-end, as mentioned in the earnings call. The strong growth in adjusted free cash flow to $41.8 million in Q3 2025 provides some reassurance regarding the company's ability to service its debt obligations.

The company's adjusted EBITDA calculation provides insight into its operational performance when excluding various non-recurring and non-cash items:

Baldwin's adjusted EBITDA margin on retained commissions and fees, a key profitability metric for the company, stood at 25% in Q3 2025, down from 28% in the same period last year:

Strategic Initiatives & Outlook

During the earnings call, CEO Trevor Baldwin emphasized the company's strong sales performance, stating, "We are consistently performing in the top decile for new business generation in our industry." He also highlighted the impact of the company's digital agent workflow, noting, "Our digital agent workflow... is driving really compelling conversion statistics."

Looking ahead, Baldwin Insurance has set optimistic expectations for Q4 2025, projecting revenue between $345 million and $355 million, with organic growth in the mid-single digits. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to range from $68 million to $73 million, while adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be between $0.28 and $0.32.

For 2026, the company forecasts revenue between $1.66 billion and $1.7 billion, with high single-digit organic growth and adjusted EBITDA between $380 million and $400 million.

The company's stock, which closed at $22.63 in aftermarket trading following the earnings release, remains well below its 52-week high of $50.46, despite beating analyst expectations for the quarter. This suggests investors remain cautious about Baldwin's growth trajectory and profitability challenges amid a transitioning insurance market.

Full presentation:

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