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Introduction & Market Context
NET Power Inc. (NASDAQ:NPWR) presented its third quarter 2025 earnings on November 14, revealing a significant strategic pivot toward post-combustion carbon capture technology amid substantial financial losses. The company's stock plunged 10.51% following the earnings release to $2.95, with premarket trading showing a further 22.37% decline to $2.29, reflecting investor concerns about the company's performance and strategic direction.
The presentation highlighted NET Power's mission to transform natural gas into the "lowest cost form of clean firm power" at a time when AI and data centers are driving unprecedented energy demand growth. According to the company's projections, U.S. data center energy consumption is expected to surge from 224 TWh in 2025 to 606 TWh by 2030, representing approximately 12% of total U.S. power demand.
As shown in the following chart of projected data center energy consumption:
Strategic Initiatives
NET Power's most significant announcement was its strategic shift from its traditional oxy-combustion technology toward post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) solutions. This pivot appears driven by market demands for faster deployment and lower costs. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) loss of $5.28, dramatically missing the forecasted -$0.13, which CEO Danny Rice contextualized during the earnings call by emphasizing the need to "reassess resource allocation."
The company outlined its technology roadmap, showing a progression from higher-cost, higher-capture oxy-combustion solutions toward hybrid and PCC approaches that offer lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE):
A cornerstone of this strategic shift is NET Power's newly announced partnership with Entropy to accelerate the deployment of clean, reliable power generation using Entropy's proprietary amine-based solvent technology. This partnership aims to enable faster market entry while achieving carbon capture rates exceeding 90%.
The strategic rationale for this partnership is illustrated here:
"We're at the beginning of a natural gas supercycle," stated CEO Danny Rice during the earnings call, emphasizing that "speed to market is paramount" in the company's revised strategy.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
NET Power's financial performance for Q3 2025 fell significantly short of expectations. The -$5.28 EPS represents a negative surprise of over 3,900% compared to analyst forecasts, raising concerns about the company's financial trajectory. Management indicated that cash on hand is expected to be $390-400 million by the end of 2025, with capital expenditure for the first project projected between $375-425 million.
The stock's current trading price of $2.95 (pre-market $2.29) is approaching the 52-week low of $1.48, reflecting investor skepticism about the company's near-term prospects. Future EPS forecasts remain negative, with projections of -$0.43 for Q4 2025 and -$1.57 for FY 2026.
Despite these financial challenges, NET Power continues to position itself as a first mover in clean natural gas power generation, emphasizing three core attributes of its offering:
Project Pipeline Details
NET Power detailed two major projects in its development pipeline. The first is Project Permian in West Texas, which aims to deploy gas turbines with post-combustion capture in a modular configuration, delivering up to 1 GW of capacity. Phase I targets 60 MW output, with a Financial Investment Decision (FID) expected in H1 2026 and commercial operation date (COD) in H2 2028 or H1 2029.
The project details and timeline are illustrated here:
The second project is located in Northern MISO with a COD target of 2029-2030. The company has secured the site and submitted a 300MW interconnection request with MISO. This project will also utilize gas turbines with Entropy PCC technology.
The Northern MISO project overview is shown here:
Together, these projects represent NET Power's strategy to establish clean firm power hubs in key U.S. markets:
Forward-Looking Statements
NET Power faces several challenges as it implements its strategic pivot. The significant earnings miss and subsequent stock decline indicate financial pressures that could impact the company's ability to execute its project pipeline. The transition to post-combustion carbon capture technology, while potentially offering faster market entry, introduces execution risks.
Management projects LCOE figures ranging from $70-170/MWh depending on configuration, with carbon capture rates of 90%+ using Entropy's technology. These projections will be critical to monitor as the company progresses toward its stated FID target in Q1 2026.
While NET Power claims no direct competitors in its specific niche, the broader clean energy landscape is increasingly competitive, and emerging technologies could pose threats to the company's market position. Regulatory changes in energy policy could also significantly impact project timelines and economics.
As the company navigates this strategic shift, investors will be closely watching whether NET Power can translate its technological vision into financial performance that reverses the current negative trajectory.
Full presentation:
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