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Investing.com -- The Bank of Italy lowered its forecast for Italy’s economic growth in 2026 to 0.7% from its previous estimate of 0.9% made in June, citing the impact of U.S. trade tariffs and euro appreciation on exports.
The revised projection, released Friday in the central bank’s quarterly economic bulletin, aligns with the Italian government’s latest estimate. The forecast takes into account the July trade agreement between the United States and European Union, which established a 15% tariff rate on most EU imports.
"We assume that these developments will contribute to a marked slowdown in global trade," the central bank stated in its report.
The Bank of Italy maintained its growth forecasts for other years, keeping 2025 at 0.5% and 2027 at 0.7%.
Italy, the euro zone’s third largest economy, experienced a 0.1% contraction in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. The central bank expects a return to weak growth in the second half of the year.
The Italian statistics bureau ISTAT will release a preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP growth on October 30.
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