FOREX-Cautious optimism supports dollar ahead of ECB

Published 11/09/2019, 02:06
Updated 11/09/2019, 02:10
© Reuters.  FOREX-Cautious optimism supports dollar ahead of ECB
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USD/KRW
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* Dollar, euro flat as traders await Thursday ECB meeting

* Rate cuts expected, decision a harbinger for Fed, BoJ

* Tepid risk-on mood holds as bonds and yen sold

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Fragile investor confidence

supported the dollar and weakened the yen on Wednesday but

currency markets kept to tight ranges ahead of series of major

central bank meetings over the next week.

Investor focus for now is centred on the European Central

Bank's meeting on Thursday, which is expected to push interest

rates even further into negative territory.

The ECB could set the tone for upcoming rate-setting

decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan next

week, and for the broader global risk appetite.

For now, a cautious risk-on mood has prevailed after

political crises that had hobbled markets, from Britain to Hong

Kong, abated, taking the shine off safe-haven assets.

Bonds slid overnight and the yen hit 107.65 per dollar, its

lowest since Aug. 1.

Overhanging the relief buying, however, are signs of a

slowdown in global demand, which have offset recent positive

developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations.

The euro EUR=EBS , which has shed 3% since June, was flat

at $1.1047. The dollar was flat against the Australian dollar

AUD=D3 at $0.6860 and steady on the yen JPY=EBS and the New

Zealand dollar NZD=D3 .

"Expect a quiet day of trading, with some support of risk,

as a broader cyclical rotation continues," Australia and New

Zealand Banking Group analysts said in a note.

"Speculation over whether the ECB will enact a new QE

programme on Thursday continues to ebb and flow."

ECB policymakers are leaning toward a package that includes

a rate cut, a pledge to keep rates low for longer and

compensation for banks over the side-effects of negative rates,

five sources familiar with the discussion said last week.

On the other hand, concerns have been building that global

central banks are reaching the limits of their stimulus options,

especially those with negative interest rates and sub-zero

long-term sovereign bond yields.

"Given the chance that the ECB fails to match market

expectations for easing policy, the balance of risks favours

higher EUR/USD and European FX outperformance," ING forex

strategists said in an overnight note.

Much of the positive mood in recent days has been driven by

optimism that a high-level meeting of U.S. and Chinese

negotiators at Washington next month can deliver some sort of

trade-war circuit breaker.

That was tamped down somewhat by White House trade advisor

Peter Navarro on Tuesday, when he urged patience about resolving

the two-year trade dispute between the world's two largest

economies and said to "let the process take its course."

But the prospect of a breakthrough stoked appetite for Asian

currencies such as the trade-exposed South Korean won KRW= ,

which drifted higher in Asian trading hours and to around

1189.50 per dollar, close to its highest since Aug. 2.

The yen, already under pressure as investors spurned safe

havens, was further sold overnight after Reuters reported BOJ

policymakers are more open to discussing the possibility of

expanding stimulus at their board meeting on Sept. 18-19.

And the pound has held on to last week's gains after British

parliament passed a law compelling Prime Minister Boris Johnson

to seek a delay to the Oct. 31 date for leaving the European

Union. Sterling last traded at $1.2353.

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