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FOREX-Yen on backfoot as returning confidence dulls safe-haven allure

Published 29/08/2019, 01:39
© Reuters.  FOREX-Yen on backfoot as returning confidence dulls safe-haven allure
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Temporary calm descends on FX market

* Stock gains overnight ease risk aversion

* Markets still on edge over trade war, Brexit

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - The dollar held gains against the

safe-haven yen on Thursday as ebbing recession worries soothed

markets after earlier volatility although the pound nursed its

losses as investors became increasingly worried about a hard

Brexit.

Sterling fell 0.6% against the greenback on Wednesday after

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to suspend

parliament, seen as a bid to limit debate ahead of the Oct. 31

deadline for the UK to leave the European Union. That increased

expectations of a "no-deal Brexit," which would mean a departure

without trading agreements in place. In Asian trade, investors will keep a close eye on stock

markets, following gains on Wall Street overnight, as well as

the Chinese central bank's daily yuan fixing and any news of

U.S.-China trade talks.

Sentiment in the currency market is likely to remain

fragile, because there are still signs of stress. The U.S.

Treasury yield curve remains inverted, which is commonly

considered a sign of an impending recession.

"The gains in stocks have provided some temporary relief to

risk sentiment, which has allowed the dollar to reclaim the 106

yen mark," said Minori Uchida, head of global markets research

at MUFG Bank in Tokyo.

"This is likely temporary, because we are still very much

worried about tariffs. In addition, long-term yields show that

Fed is behind the curve on rate cuts."

Yields on 30-year Treasuries have hit a record low as

investors scramble for the safety of government debt.

Against the dollar, the yen was steady early in Asian

trading at 106.06 yen JPY=EBS after falling 0.3% on Wednesday.

The dollar index =USD , which measures the greenback

against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.16% to 98.189.

Spot gold XAU= was flat at $1,539.65 per ounce, following

a 0.2% decline on Wednesday.

The yen and gold are both considered safe-haven assets, so

they tend to weaken when other financial markets show signs that

risk aversion has abated.

Currencies showed little reaction after U.S. Treasury

Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he has no intention of intervening

in the dollar right now, according to Bloomberg. However, traders may remain concerned about U.S. currency

policy because President Donald Trump has complained that the

dollar is too strong and has repeatedly attacked the Federal

Reserve for not cutting interest rates further.

Many traders say such intervention is unlikely, especially

after the United States labelled China a currency manipulator

earlier this month.

Still, there is some concern given Trump's often erratic

statements about the Fed and about negotiations with China to

solve the trade war.

The Trump administration on Wednesday made official its

extra 5% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports and set

collection dates of Sept. 1 and Dec. 15, prompting hundreds of

U.S. retail, footwear, toy and technology companies to warn of

price hikes. The trade dispute between the United States and China is

now in its second year and is placing increasing strain on the

global economy, forcing policy makers to respond with interest

rate cuts and stimulus measures to bolster growth.

The pound held steady at $1.2217 GBP=D3 on Thursday and

was last quoted at 90.74 pence per euro EURGBP=D3 , following a

0.5% decline on Wednesday.

The suspension of UK parliament, which had to be approved by

Queen Elizabeth, limits the time opponents have to derail a

disorderly Brexit, but also increases the chance that Johnson

could face a vote of no-confidence in his government, and

possibly an election.

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