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Investing.com -- ABN AMRO Group NV (AS:ABNd) on Tuesday said it plans to distribute up to 100% of the capital it generates between 2026 and 2028, a policy Morgan Stanley described as “the main positive today” following the Dutch lender’s capital markets day, sending shares up over 3%.
The bank outlined wide-ranging restructuring measures under its new strategy and confirmed a reduction of 5,200 full-time equivalent jobs by 2028.
The plan was announced ahead of the event and under the leadership of CEO Marguerite Bérard, who took charge in early 2025. The lender is refocusing on its core mortgage business, concentrating more tightly on Northwest Europe and scaling back or divesting less-profitable segments.
As part of the reshaping, ABN AMRO is selling its personal-loan arm, Alfam, to Rabobank. The sale carries an estimated €100 million book loss but is expected to lift the bank’s Common Equity Tier 1 ratio by about five basis points.
The adjustment includes reducing risk-weighted assets in corporate banking by roughly €10 billion over the next three years.
The lender said the shift is aimed at simplifying operations and lowering its cost base. About half of the job cuts are expected to come through attrition.
Alongside the restructuring, ABN AMRO issued new long-term financial targets. The bank set a 2028 return on equity of at least 12%, income above €10 billion and a CET1 ratio exceeding 13.75%.
It also aims for a cost-to-income ratio of below about 55%. Morgan Stanley wrote that the bank’s goals for ROE, cost-to-income and revenue are broadly in line with market expectations.
Morgan Stanley highlighted ABN AMRO’s decision to raise its CET1 target from a previously assumed 13.5% to above 13.75%, noting that “consensus doesn’t get below 14.2% over the forecast time horizon.”
It also pointed to the lender’s intention to cut capital allocated to the corporate bank from 58% to 50%, including a €10 billion reduction mainly linked to collateral optimisation.
Near-term guidance, however, was weaker. ABN AMRO forecast about €6.4 billion in commercial net interest income for 2026, excluding €0 to €200 million in residual NII.
Morgan Stanley said the figure amounts to “a ~€200mn downgrade” relative to Visible Alpha consensus. Cost guidance of €5.6 billion for 2026, excluding around €0.2 billion related to NIBC, came below the €5.8 billion consensus, but the lender noted that its targets do not include €400 million in restructuring costs planned through 2028.
Morgan Stanley wrote that “while a cost upgrade should offset part of the NII downgrade, we think this is a net downgrade to 2026 numbers.” The bank’s disposal of Alfam is expected to contribute five basis points to capital, according to the report.