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GLOBAL MARKETS-Sterling falters as Brexit approaches its endgame

Published 16/10/2019, 12:10
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Sterling falters as Brexit approaches its endgame
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Brexit negotiations resume in Brussels

* Pound edges lower

* European stocks dip

* European third-quarter earnings seen falling 3.7% y-o-y

* U.S. sanctions hit Turkish markets

(Updates prices, adds Brexit developments)

By Julien Ponthus

LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Sterling came off five-month

highs and stocks traded sideways on Wednesday as the European

Union and Britain sought to avert a disorderly Brexit before an

EU summit on Thursday.

Hopes of a breakthrough lifted markets on Tuesday, but

investors turned more cautious after looking for a deal during

the night that never came.

Conflicting reports about the ongoing talks triggered a

series of sharp moves on the pound. Reports that Germany might

use emergency measures to counter any market panic from a hard

Brexit, such as banning bets on falling share prices, also

weighed on morale.

"Most of the good news that could have been anticipated has

been priced in, and now there's caution it seems on whether we

get a deal today or not," said Kallum Pickering, senior

economist at Berenberg.

Sterling was GBP=D3 down 0.4% against the dollar with

investors trading volatility levels not seen since the 2016 June

Brexit referendum.

The pound had strengthened by close to 5% over the past week

as investors rushed to reprice the prospect of a last-minute

Brexit deal before the Oct. 31 deadline.

Euro zone government bonds were also volatile on Wednesday

as investors watched the eleventh-hour talks.

German 10-year government bond yields DE10YT=RR were last

flat at -0.42%, after reaching an 11-week high of -0.397% as

Bunds extended a sell-off that began on Tuesday.

British government 10-year bond yields were down 2.7 basis

points at 0.67%, unaffected by data showing inflation in

September reached 1.7% year-on-year, below market expectations.

The pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX retreated 0.1%, but

Britain's domestically focused midcaps .FTMC , a gauge of

Brexit anxiety, fell 0.8%. Ireland's ISEQ .ISEQ , another

vulnerable index, lost 0.6%.

Earlier, shares rose in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of

Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS gained 0.5%.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS was

flat.

"Even though we are most optimistic that a deal does happen,

we don't think the most likely outcome is that it happens by

October 31, so you would be looking at some form of extension

and potentially elections," said, Andrew Sheets, chief cross

asset strategist at Morgan Stanley.

Third-quarter earnings are expected to show an overall

decline in earnings, which could also weigh on morale, Sheets

said. Morgan Stanley had a below-consensus view on how companies

would fare this quarter, he said.

Europe's companies are struggling with uncertainties

ranging from Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war to Germany's

manufacturing recession.

Companies listed on the STOXX 600 .STOXX index are now

expected to report a decline in third-quarter earnings of as

much as 3.7%, worse than the 3% expected a week ago, according

to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.

Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that China will struggle

to buy $50 billion of U.S. farm goods annually unless it removes

retaliatory tariffs on American products, which would require

reciprocal action by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its

slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the

International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.

Global gross domestic product is now expected grow 3% in

2019, the IMF said its latest World Economic Outlook

projections, down from 3.2% in a July forecast, largely because

of global trade friction.

U.S. stocks, which typically track the ups and downs of the

trade war, were set to open in the red. S&P 500 futures ESc1

and Nasdaq futures NQc1 were both down 0.3%.

In commodities, Brent crude LCOc1 shed about 0.1 cent to

$58.66 a barrel. U.S. crude CLc1 rose 10 cents to $52.91 after

falling the day before over fears the trade war would keep

squeezing the global economy.

In emerging markets, Turkey's Halkbank HALKB.IS saw its

shares and bonds plunge after U.S. prosecutors charged the

state-owned lender with taking part in a multibillion-dollar

scheme to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran.

A day earlier, Washington had imposed sanctions on Turkish

officials, raised tariffs and halted trade talks after Turkey

invaded northeastern Syria in a campaign again Kurdish fighters.

Before Turkish markets opened, authorities banned short

selling on seven large Turkish bank stocks, including Halkbank.

Selling shares in the banks only to buy them later in the

session was also banned, authorities said.

China's trade-war scorecard https://tmsnrt.rs/2VyzGPK

European Q3 earnings https://tmsnrt.rs/33yhkBj

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