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FOREX-Dollar falls on trade deal outlook, Aussie down on dovish RBA

Published 19/11/2019, 03:00
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar falls on trade deal outlook, Aussie down on dovish RBA
US10YT=X
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DXY
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Hopes for U.S.-China trade deal wax and wane

* Traders looking for signs of trade deal this month

* Dollar/yen locked in narrow rage

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the yen on

Tuesday as receding hopes for a preliminary trade deal between

the United States and China hurt demand for the greenback.

The yuan touched a two-week low versus the greenback amid

doubts about the U.S.-China trade war.

The Australian dollar also fell after minutes from a Reserve

Bank of Australia policy meeting showed central bankers

considered cutting rates this month. There have been high expectations that the United States and

China would sign a so-called "phase one" deal this month to

scale back their 16-month long trade war.

But the dollar took a hit on Monday after CNBC reported that

China is pessimistic about agreeing to a deal, which suggests a

resolution to perhaps the biggest risk to the global economy

remains elusive. "The dollar tried to break above 109 yen, but it couldn't

because of worries about the trade deal," said Junichi Ishikawa,

senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

"The Treasury market is starting to reflect similar concerns

about the lack of a trade deal," Ishikawa added. "This will keep

dollar/yen in a narrow range."

The dollar JPY=EBS fell 0.11% to 108.55 yen, following a

0.09% decline on Monday.

The dollar was quoted at $1.1067 per euro EUR=EBS on

Tuesday in Asia after falling to the lowest in almost two weeks.

Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar index

.DXY stood at 97.856, close to a two-week low.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR fell

slightly to 1.8049% in Asia, also approaching a two-week low as

uncertainty boosted demand for the safety of government debt.

Citing a government source, CNBC reported on Monday that

Beijing was pessimistic about a trade deal with the United

States, troubled by Trump's comments that there was no agreement

on phasing out tariffs. In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS fell to a

two-week low of 7.0295 per dollar.

Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on each other's

goods in a bitter dispute over Chinese trade practices that the

U.S. government says are unfair.

The tariffs have slowed global trade and raised the risk of

recession for some economies. Many economists say the drag on

global growth will remain as long as tariffs are in place.

Currency traders were also wary of the dollar after Trump

met U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday amid

the U.S. president's repeated criticism that the Fed has not

lowered interest rates enough. "Everything was discussed including interest rates, negative

interest, low inflation, easing, Dollar strength & its effect on

manufacturing, trade with China, E.U. & others, etc.," Trump

tweeted soon after the meeting, calling the session "good &

cordial."

In a statement, the Fed said Powell's expectations for

future policy were not discussed, but Trump has for more than a

year said the Fed was undermining his economic policies by

keeping interest rates too high.

Elsewhere in the currency market, the Australian dollar

AUD=D3 fell 0.25% to $0.6789 and declined 0.36% to 73.73 yen

AUDJPY= .

Australia's central bank "agreed a case could be made" for

another cut in the 0.75% cash rate at its November meeting given

unwelcome weakness in wages growth and inflation, minutes

published on Tuesday showed.

The RBA decided to hold steady, in part because of worries

that further easing would harm savers and confidence.

The central bank has already cut rates three times since

June to an historic low.

The Aussie took a hit last week after data showed Australian

employment suffered its sharpest fall in three years in October,

underlining the need for stimulus.

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