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Investing.com -- KB Securities predicts the KOSPI index will reach 5,000 points in 2026, driven by a rare combination of earnings per share (EPS) growth and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio increases.
The firm attributes the expected EPS growth to an ongoing restocking cycle, while P/E increases are likely to result from government stock market stimulus measures and foreign investor buying activity.
KB Securities notes that it is "extremely rare" for the Korean stock market to experience simultaneous EPS growth and P/E expansion.
The restocking cycle is projected to continue through mid-2026, with the ISM index potentially reaching 56-58 points, similar to levels seen during the dot-com bubble. This environment should support continued earnings growth for Korean semiconductor companies.
While only business-to-business (B2B) segments, particularly AI investment, have shown momentum due to cycle decoupling, KB Securities expects base rate cuts and tax breaks in 2026 to trigger a rebound in business-to-consumer (B2C) segments, further enhancing earnings.
The firm also warns that 2026 carries higher risk, consistent with historical patterns in even-numbered years. This elevated risk is attributed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies and inflationary pressures.
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