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Investing.com -- KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded T-Mobile to Sector Weight in a note on Tuesday, arguing that investor worries about the carrier’s outlook have gone too far, even as structural and cyclical challenges persist.
Analyst Brandon Nispel wrote that while he still sees pressures ahead, “the risk/reward appears neutral at these levels.”
The upgrade comes after T-Mobile shares declined 12.5% since KeyBanc downgraded the stock in July, compared with a 9.9% gain in the S&P 500.
According to KeyBanc, sentiment toward the company has deteriorated sharply, driven in part by fears of a Verizon resurgence, concerns the firm says are “overdone.”
KeyBanc expects the next major catalyst to arrive with fourth-quarter earnings and T-Mobile’s 2026–2027 outlook.
Nispel says the company is positioned to “message an acceleration in organic growth rates following investment in 2025,” citing the potential for organic EBITDA growth to reaccelerate to more than 7% in 2026 and 2027 versus roughly 5% in 2025.
Still, the bar remains high. KeyBanc believes expectations allow “little room for error,” noting that consensus assumes benefits from recent acquisitions, MetroNet, Lumos, UScellular and Vistar/Bliss, and synergy capture that requires “nearly flawless execution.”
Longer term, the firm maintains its broader concerns, arguing that T-Mobile remains “structurally challenged to compete in a converged world given its lack of Fiber” and “cyclically challenged” as customer growth normalizes and pricing aligns more closely with peers.
But near term, Nispel wrote, the bear case “becomes harder to justify” as growth trends improve.