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Investing.com -- Memory stocks continue to attract investor attention as demand patterns evolve and pricing dynamics shift. According to recent analysis from Bernstein, three key players dominate the memory sector with varying outlooks for the coming quarters.
Here’s a breakdown of how these companies are positioned based on their latest performance indicators and future prospects.
Despite some concerning signals, Samsung’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Recent data shows October exports from South Chungcheong Province (where Samsung packages HBM) decreased 17% quarter-over-quarter compared to July. If this trend continues based on regression analysis, Samsung’s Q4 2025 HBM revenue could potentially fall 30% quarter-over-quarter, contradicting growth predictions.
However, Bernstein notes that export strength has historically increased later in quarters, with monthly seasonality becoming increasingly backend-skewed. November and December performance could still accelerate, allowing Samsung to recover lost ground.
In recent developments, Samsung Electronics reported a 21% increase in third-quarter net profit, driven by a rebound in its semiconductor business from strong AI chip demand. Additionally, both Jefferies and UBS maintained Buy ratings, with UBS raising its price target for the company.
2. SK hynix
SK hynix appears to be tracking slightly ahead of expectations, though this may be attributed to delayed revenue recognition from Q3 2025. Regression analysis suggests SK hynix’s Q4 2025 HBM revenue could grow approximately 40% quarter-over-quarter, potentially exceeding Bernstein’s model by 10%.
However, analysts caution that October’s strong performance might simply reflect delayed revenue from Q3 2025, meaning total second-half 2025 revenue may remain unchanged from previous forecasts.
SK hynix received an upgrade from Goldman Sachs, which moved its rating to Buy from Neutral while citing expectations for a strong memory upcycle. The company’s third-quarter results also indicated robust customer demand visibility through 2026.
Bernstein maintains a structurally positive outlook on Micron alongside Samsung and SK hynix. The firm’s research indicates unprecedented rapid price increases in NAND and especially in conventional DRAM.
While a significant portion of volume remains unprotected by long-term contracts, strong demand from US hyperscalers for AI applications, combined with limited capacity additions in upcoming quarters, suggests prices will continue rising in the first half of 2026 and remain robust throughout the year.
Micron Technology has seen positive analyst sentiment, with firms including UBS, TD Cowen, and Rosenblatt raising their price targets. S&P Global Ratings also revised its outlook on the company to positive from stable, pointing to growth driven by AI demand.
Bernstein cautions investors about pronounced short-term volatility across memory stocks, noting they can become vulnerable targets when macroeconomic signals prompt portfolio adjustments. The firm also highlights increasing structural threats from Chinese memory companies like YMTC (NAND) and CXMT (DRAM), which are reportedly preparing for public listings soon.
While maintaining a positive structural outlook on Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, Bernstein expresses a negative view on KIOXIA and advises investors to navigate the sector’s strong near-term volatility with caution.
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