S&P 500 edges higher ahead of upcoming jobs data, possible government shutdown

Published 29/09/2025, 13:22
Updated 29/09/2025, 19:54
© Reuters

Investing.com - S&P 500 edged higher Monday, as investors awaited the release of a key jobs report later in the week and eyed the implications of a looming federal government shutdown.

At 2:53 p.m. ET (18:53 GMT), the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 50 points, or 0.1%, the benchmark S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had climbed 0.5%.

The main averages rose to end the prior session, underpinned by fresh U.S. inflation data that broadly met expectations. Still, the three indices finished lower for the week, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite in particular snapping three-week winning streaks.

Nonfarm payrolls, possible government shutdown in focus

Attention is turning to the unveiling of September’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which could provide a glimpse into the state of the American labor market.

Supporting a cooling jobs picture has been a major focus for Federal Reserve policymakers. When the central bank slashed interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, officials widely suggested that a need to prioritize the slowing employment situation over signs of sticky inflation.

A collection of rate projections from the Fed also showed that many members are anticipating further drawdowns before the end of the year. In theory, cutting rates can encourage investment and hiring, albeit at the risk of driving up prices.

Economists are anticipating that the U.S. added 51,000 roles this month, compared to 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate, at the same time, is expected to equal August’s level of 4.3%.

Observers have predicted that, given elevated inflation data, a strong jobs report could persuade the Fed to roll out further rate cuts at a more measured pace.

Traders are currently pricing in roughly 40 basis points of Fed easing by the end of 2025, around 25 basis points below the level seen earlier this month.

"A jobs number [less than] 75,000 will probably keep the Fed on track for a [...] cut [at its next meeting on October 29], but something [greater than] 115K with the core PCE just below 3% could spur" Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to skip a reduction at the gathering, analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note. 

Yet worries remain that a possible U.S. government shutdown this week may delay the publication of the jobs numbers.

Congressional lawmakers are currently facing an impending deadline to pass a stopgap funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday. If the federal government would enter its 15th partial shuttering since 1981.

Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, although the votes of some opposition Democrats would be needed to pass the legislation. However, Democrats have so far rejected a short-term bill, calling for any potential bill to reverse Republican reductions to health care programs.

Leaders from both parties in Congress are due to meet with President Donald Trump -- a Republican -- at the White House on Monday to discuss the matter. Speaking to Reuters over the weekend, Trump said he has "the impression" that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.

Carnival raises full-year income outlook

In individual stocks, shares of Carnival Corp inched up by 1%, after the cruise operator lifted its annual profit forecast for the third time this year, citing solid demand for sea-based vacations and higher spending on ships.

Fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share is now seen at roughly $2.14, compared to a previous projection of around $1.97.

The company also highlighted strong booking trends for 2026, with cumulative advanced bookings in line with 2025’s record levels and at historically high prices.

Carnival posted adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share for its fiscal third quarter, beating analyst estimates of $1.32. Revenue reached an all-time high of $8.2 billion, surpassing the consensus forecast of $8.09 billion and marking the tenth consecutive quarter of record revenues.

Gold’s new record high

Gold prices hit a record high above $3,800 per ounce as safe-haven demand was boosted by the concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which weighed on the dollar.

Ongoing bets that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates also buoyed the yellow metal. Bullion tends to perform well when rates are brought down, as well as in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty.

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