Earnings call transcript: Vermilion Energy Q3 2025 results show mixed signals

Vermilion Energy Inc. reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a mixed performance with a notable revenue beat but a shortfall in earnings per share (EPS). The company reported an EPS of $0.02, falling short of the forecasted $0.04, marking a 50% miss. However, revenue surpassed expectations, reaching $449.5 million against a forecast of $409.65 million, resulting in a 9.73% surprise. Following the announcement, Vermilion’s stock rose by 7.22%, closing at $7.87, with a premarket increase of 4.09%.

Key Takeaways

• Vermilion Energy’s revenue exceeded expectations by 9.73%.
• EPS fell short of forecasts by 50%, impacting investor sentiment.
• The stock price surged 7.22% post-earnings report.
• The company reduced its 2025 capital and operating cost guidance.
• Vermilion continues to focus on its global gas business, with a 40% increase in production per share.

Company Performance

Vermilion Energy demonstrated resilience in the third quarter of 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by strong production levels and strategic operations in North America and Europe. The company’s production averaged 119,062 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, with a 67% gas weighting, positioning it favorably in the global gas market. Despite the EPS miss, Vermilion’s revenue performance and strategic focus on gas production reflect its competitive advantage in the energy sector.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $449.5 million, up from the forecasted $409.65 million.
• Earnings per share: $0.02, below the expected $0.04.
• Fund flows from operations: CAD 254 million.
• Free cash flow: CAD 108 million.
• Net debt reduced by over CAD 650 million since Q1 2023.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Vermilion Energy’s EPS of $0.02 missed the forecast of $0.04 by 50%, reflecting challenges in meeting profit expectations. However, the revenue of $449.5 million surpassed the forecast by 9.73%, indicating strong operational performance. This revenue beat is significant compared to previous quarters, showcasing the company’s ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Vermilion’s stock saw a notable increase of 7.22%, closing at $7.87. This positive market reaction suggests that investors are optimistic about the company’s revenue growth and strategic initiatives, despite the EPS miss. The stock’s movement is within its 52-week range, with a recent high of $10.85 and a low of $5.14, indicating a recovery trend.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, Vermilion Energy has set its 2026 exploration and development capital budget at CAD 600-630 million, with an expected production of 118,000-122,000 BOE per day. The company plans to drill 49 gross wells and expand Montney infrastructure, aiming for significant free cash flow generation. The quarterly dividend has been increased to CAD 0.135 per share, reflecting confidence in future cash flows.

Executive Commentary

Dion Hatcher, CEO, stated, "We’re now entering the next phase of our strategy with a larger, more focused asset base," highlighting the company’s strategic direction. CFO Lars Glemser noted, "A $1 increase in AECO price would effectively add CAD 100 million of excess free cash flow," emphasizing the financial impact of gas pricing on Vermilion’s operations.

Risks and Challenges

• Fluctuating gas prices could impact revenue and profitability.
• Operational risks associated with international exploration and production.
• Potential regulatory changes in key markets.
• Currency exchange rate fluctuations affecting financial results.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about Vermilion’s asset strategy in Australia, gas pricing strategy, and exploration results in Germany and the Netherlands. The discussion highlighted the company’s focus on strategic asset management and market positioning.

Vermilion Energy’s Q3 2025 earnings report presents a complex picture, with strong revenue performance overshadowed by an EPS miss. The company’s strategic focus on gas production and operational efficiency continues to drive its market position, despite the challenges faced in meeting earnings expectations.

Full transcript - Vermilion Energy Inc (VET) Q3 2025:

Conference Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Vermilion Q3 2025 conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Thursday, November 6, 2025. I will now turn the conference call over to Mr. Dion Hatcher, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Dion Hatcher, President and CEO, Vermilion Energy: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I’m Dion Hatcher, President and CEO of Vermilion Energy. With me today are Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO; Darcy Kerwin, Vice President, International and HSE; Brandon McQuaid, Vice President, North America; Laura Conrad, Vice President, Business Development; and Travis Ferguson, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning. Please refer to the advisory on forward-looking statements in our Q3 release. It describes the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures, and oil and gas terms used today, and outlines the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. Vermilion delivered another strong quarter in Q3, demonstrating both operational excellence and financial discipline. Our production came in at the upper end of our guidance range, and we were able to generate robust fund flows from operations in a challenging commodity price environment.

Our performance this quarter reflects improvements in both capital and operating efficiencies, driven by the strategic repositioning of our asset base. These structural improvements enabled us to lower the top end of our 2025 capital guidance by CAD 20 million without impacting our production. This speaks to the growing efficiency of our capital deployment. In addition, we lowered our full-year operating cost guidance by more than CAD 10 million due to the improvements we are realizing in the second half of 2025. This momentum will carry into the 2026 budget guidance, which includes even lower capital and unit operating costs, reflective of our larger, more corded-up portfolio. When compared to 2024, the last full year before we launched our asset high-grading initiative, our production per share has increased by over 40%, while our unit cost structure is down by 30%.

This reflects the strength of our repositioned portfolio, where 85% of both production and capital is now concentrated in our global gas business. By focusing on these more efficient, longer duration assets, we have better positioned Vermilion for sustainable, long-term success. Our Q3 results underscore the resilience and the competitive strength of our differentiated asset base. Notably, our realized gas price in the quarter, excluding hedging gains, was CAD 4.36 per MCF, significantly outperforming the AECO 5A pricing. In Canada, we realized a gas price that was more than double the AECO benchmark, and when combined with our direct exposure to premium priced European gas, our realized pricing is seven times the AECO benchmark. When you include hedging gains, the realized price increased to CAD 5.62 per MCF. Nine times the AECO benchmark, highlighting the strategic advantage of being a global gas producer.

During the quarter, we made a deliberate and strategic choice to temporarily shut in a portion of our Deep Basin gas production and defer the startup of several wells, resulting in approximately 3,000 BOEs per day of production impact in the quarter. We expect to bring these volumes online in Q4, where pricing is more favorable. During the quarter, we met a portion of our volume commitments by purchasing rather than producing our own gas, demonstrating our commitment to profitable development. We continue to make progress towards key milestones with the development of our global gas assets in Germany, the Montney, and the Deep Basin. In Germany in 2026, we will bring our discovery well at Visselhöhe online and look to expand takeaway capacity over the next two years to maximize the economics of this prolific well.

We will also advance our plans to spud the follow-up Visselhöhe structure in early 2027, and with a shorter cycle time than our initial exploration well, plan to bring these wells on production in the second half of 2028. In Canada, we will continue to invest in the Montney asset as we progress towards a significant inflection in free cash flow in 2028. In the Deep Basin, we will run an efficient, consistent three-rig program and generate strong free cash flow by producing volumes into our existing infrastructure. As we look out over the next three years, these projects will significantly improve our free cash flow outlook. I will now pass it over to Lars to discuss the Q3 results as well as our 2026 budget guidance.

Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO, Vermilion Energy: Thank you, Dion. Vermilion generated CAD 254 million in fund flows from operations in Q3, with free cash flow of CAD 108 million after E&D capital expenditures of CAD 146 million. We continue to reduce debt during the quarter and have now reduced our net debt by over CAD 650 million since Q1 2023, bringing net debt to under CAD 1.4 billion as of September 30. This resulted in a net debt to four-quarter trailing FFO ratio of 1.4 times, reflecting continued progress towards strengthening Vermilion’s balance sheet. In addition, Vermilion returned CAD 26 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, comprising CAD 20 million in dividends and CAD 6 million of share buybacks during the quarter. This resulted in the company repurchasing 600,000 shares for a total of 2.5 million shares repurchased year to date. In total, we have repurchased approximately 20 million shares since mid-2022.

Q3 production averaged 119,062 BOE per day with a 67% gas weighting, which was at the upper end of our guidance range. In North America, production averaged 88,763 BOE per day, inclusive of the July divestments of our Saskatchewan and US assets, as well as shutting gas production and deferral of new well startups in Q3 in response to pricing. International operations averaged 30,299 BOE per day, up 2% from the previous quarter due to strong performance across our business units. In the Deep Basin, we ramped up to a three-rig drilling program in Q3, targeting multiple stack zones across our 1.1 million net acre land base. We drilled 13, completed 12, and brought on production three gross liquid-rich gas wells in the Deep Basin. The drill program results to date are exceeding our expectations, with test rates indicating deliverability well in excess of our type curves.

Internationally, we executed a successful two gross or 1.2 net well drilling program in the Netherlands, discovering commercial gas across two zones, De Rootlegen and Zechstein. Both wells are expected to be completed, tied in, and brought on production in Q4 2025. These two wells are the latest successes in our two-plus decades of exploration and development in the Netherlands, and combined with recent discoveries in Germany, demonstrate Vermilion’s broader European gas exploration capabilities to repeatedly add European gas reserves at a cost of CAD 1.50 per MCF into a gas market currently in excess of $15 per MCF. Meanwhile, Osterheide, our first German exploration well, continues to produce at a restricted rate of 1,100 BOE per day, generating nearly CAD 2 million per month of excess free cash flow.

Our second well, Visselhöhe, is on track for startup by mid-2026, with preparations underway for follow-up drilling of two gross or 1.3 net wells in the Visselhöhe structure. As a reminder, the first well is expected to recover 68 BCF of gas, and our P50 estimate of gross gas in place for the structure is 380 BCF. We also released our 2026 budget yesterday, featuring an exploration and development capital budget of CAD 600 million-CAD 630 million, with approximately 85% allocated to our global gas portfolio. Key investments include drilling and strategic infrastructure in the Montney, a continuous drilling program targeting high-return, liquids-rich gas wells in the Deep Basin, and drilling and infrastructure capital in Germany and the Netherlands.

We expect modest production growth from second half 2025 levels on our continuing operations, with annual average production between 118,000 and 122,000 BOE per day, maintaining our commitment to financial discipline and free cash flow generation. Our 2026 budget includes a significant reduction in our overall cost structure, with a 30% improvement in capital and operating efficiencies, reflecting the benefits of our repositioned global gas portfolio and our focus on operational excellence. For 2026, we plan to invest approximately CAD 415 million into liquids-rich gas assets in the Montney and Deep Basin, drilling 49 gross wells, which translates to approximately 45 net wells, reflecting our high working interest in Canada. In the Deep Basin, we plan to run a three-rig program to drill 43 gross wells. Notably, minimal new infrastructure spending is required to support this development, which is a key advantage of our Deep Basin asset.

In the Montney, we plan to drill six and complete and bring on production 10 wells. In addition, we will continue to expand our infrastructure in advance of total Montney throughput, growing to 28,000 BOE per day by 2028, which aligns with the buildout of third-party gas infrastructure. Once we achieve target production, infrastructure and drilling capital requirements will decrease as we expect to drill about eight wells per year to sustain production. The combination of higher production and lower capital will pivot the Montney asset to significant excess free cash flow of approximately CAD 125 million per year for 15-plus years, assuming commodity prices of CAD 3 AECO and $70 WTI. Internationally, we plan to invest around CAD 200 million in 2026. Focusing on European gas exploration and development and optimizing base production.

This includes drilling one well at a 50% working interest in the Netherlands and preparing for two additional follow-up wells at 64% working interest at the Visselhöhe discovery in Germany in early Q1 2027. We will bring the initial Visselhöhe well online mid-2026 and expand the supporting infrastructure to enable significantly higher production over the next two years. We will also invest in economic workovers and optimization projects across our international assets. Higher maintenance spending in 2026 compared to prior years is due to non-recurring turnarounds, including a planned 32-day turnaround in Ireland, the scope of which is scheduled to occur every five years. Our priorities on shareholder returns remain unchanged. We will use excess free cash flow to maintain a strong balance sheet, fund a sustainable base dividend, and be opportunistic with share buybacks. I’m pleased to announce our intention to increase the quarterly cash dividend by 4%.

To CAD 0.135 per share, effective with the Q1 2026 dividend. The dividend payout remains at a modest level even during this commodity price period, and we see the potential for higher return of capital as free cash flow increases in the Montney, Germany, and Deep Basin. I will now pass it back to Dion. Thank you, Lars. Looking ahead, Q4 will mark the first full quarter of our repositioned global gas portfolio. Following an active year of acquisition and disposition activity, we expect fourth quarter production to average between 119,000 and 121,000 BOEs per day, inclusive of the decision to defer the startup of multiple wells. Based on this performance, our 2025 full year production guidance is expected to be 119,500 BOEs per day. Importantly, we’re able to maintain this production outlook while reducing our E&D capital guidance to between CAD 630 million and CAD 640 million.

The CAD 20 million reduction at the top end of our guidance reflects continued improvement in capital efficiency. The capital reduction aligns with the improvement in operating costs, enabling a CAD 10 million reduction in operating cost guidance. We’re now entering the next phase of our strategy with a larger, more focused asset base, one that’s characterized by longer duration assets, high-return drilling inventory, a more efficient cost structure, and a top decile realized gas price. With proven success in exploration and development across our portfolio, a plan to increase free cash flow in our key development assets and an improving outlook for natural gas pricing, Vermilion is very well positioned for the future. In closing, I want to thank the entire Vermilion team for your efforts over the past year in creating our high-grade portfolio and realizing strong efficiencies throughout the business.

It’s truly been a heavy lift by all, and I’m extremely proud of your work, of our team. With that, thank you. We’ll now open the line for questions.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we’ll now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from Travis Wood from National Bank Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Travis Wood, Analyst, National Bank Capital Markets: Yeah, good morning, guys. Could you provide some additional color or further color around Australia in terms of kind of where current volumes would be sitting at and how you’re setting that asset up through 2026 and potentially into 2027 with incremental drills and what that capital would look like?

Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO, Vermilion Energy: Thanks, Travis. Dion, I’ll take the call. Australia, as you know, is a premium pricing there. We get $10-$15 US premium to Brent pricing, which helps our net backs. The last year here, we’ve been focused on optimizing the platform and, frankly, getting ahead on some of our maintenance. We’re well advanced on that. With respect to the next drilling program, we drill every two to four years. Tentatively, we planned the next drill for 2027. Frankly, we have flexibility on that depending on rig rates as well as commodity price environments. We’ll be in around 4,000 barrels per day currently. We’ll drift a little lower next year and then set up for that drilling program likely in kind of mid-2027.

Travis Wood, Analyst, National Bank Capital Markets: Okay, perfect. Probably for Lars, you gave a modest dividend bump on the back of the quarter. I think you’ve walked through this before, but just to remind us, how are you finding that balance of buying back more stock at this valuation versus kind of the base dividend growth as you look out on the 2026 budget and flexing some optionality around commodity prices too, I guess?

Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO, Vermilion Energy: Yeah, for sure, Travis. Thanks for the question. I think at the end of the day, what we’re really focused on is things that we can control and driving per share value. We’ve got a number of ways to drive per share value. I would say that share buybacks is one of those ways to do it. There are other options as well. If you kind of look at the portfolio now, we’re getting a lot of this infrastructure spend in the Montney behind us. We’ve got a lot of infrastructure to fill up in the Deep Basin. We’ve been able to de-risk some of these exploration projects in Germany as well. We want to balance that operational momentum with return of capital as well in delivering per share value over the longer term. Part of that is to continue strengthening the balance sheet as well.

We will have a chunk of our excess free cash flow reserved for debt reduction in 2026 as well. I think the dividend increase, that should be viewed as confidence in a lot of these operational activities that we are executing on as well. In addition to that, we will continue to buy back shares and be opportunistic on that front.

Thanks, Lars.

Travis Wood, Analyst, National Bank Capital Markets: Okay, fantastic. That’s all for me. I’ll turn it back. Thanks, guys.

Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO, Vermilion Energy: Thanks, Travis.

Conference Operator: Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I’d like to turn the conference call back over to Dion Hatcher for further questions.

Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO, Vermilion Energy: Great. I’m going to pass it back to Travis here. I know we had some questions on the inbox from IR, so maybe we can work through a couple of those.

Travis Ferguson, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning, Vermilion Energy: Yeah, for sure. Thanks, Dion. The first one just for Lars here. You mentioned in the release a realized gas price of about seven times the AECO price in the quarter. Can you please help me understand the drivers behind this?

Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO, Vermilion Energy: Yeah, for sure. Thanks, Travis, for the question. Zooming out here, a lot has changed with the portfolio in terms of the repositioning that we have done. Something that has not changed is we continue to have a very diverse portfolio. If you start with that AECO benchmark price, which is the price a lot of our peers use as well in terms of how do we do relative to that. It’s not just the European assets that are contributing to a strong corporate realized price. Here in Canada, we actually realized the price in the third quarter of CAD 1.37 per MCF, which was more than double the AECO benchmark. We’ve got an active program in terms of selling into the daily and the monthly price index as well. We also have over 26 million MCF a day exposed to the Chicago market as well.

We are well diversified within our Canadian portfolio. We were also able to strategically shut in and defer wells without meaningfully impacting the liquids production in our Canadian business as well. A combination of all these led to that outperformance. When you combine this strong Canadian business with our European gas business, that is where you really start to see the impact and benefits of a diversified portfolio. The impact of that is we end up with a realized price of CAD 4.36 per MCF before hedges. Before hedges, we do have an active hedging program both here in Canada as well as European gas. The majority of our hedge gain in the third quarter was driven by our gas hedges. When you combine that with the realized price, we get up to CAD 5.62 per MCF.

A really strong quarter really shows the benefits of that diversified portfolio. We are organically investing in both the Canadian assets as well as the European assets. Just a reminder as well, Travis, as we move into 2026 here, I think it’s worth noting that a $1 increase in that AECO price would effectively add CAD 100 million of excess free cash flow. Lots of exposure to that AECO price and still lots of exposure to the TTF price as well. A $1 improvement in that TTF marker would add about CAD 24 million of excess free cash flow. We feel that Vermilion is very well positioned to benefit from improving gas prices here to 2026.

Travis Ferguson, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning, Vermilion Energy: Yeah, the only thing I can add to that, I think it’s worth walking through the details because, again, it was nine times the AECO benchmark. It’s worth thinking through how we’re able to deliver that with our differentiated portfolio. Back to you, Travis.

Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO, Vermilion Energy: Thanks, Dion and Lars. Next couple here for Darcy. Could you provide more background on the next steps of the Visselhöhe prospect in Germany? What are the bottlenecking plans and how are you thinking about drilling follow-up locations there?

Yeah, thanks, Travis. In Germany at Visselhöhe, as you know, we have the one discovery at a well we call Visselhöhe Z1A that tested at pretty prolific rates. A combined test rate of slightly over 40 million cubic feet a day. Our intention is to have that well tied in and producing by Q2 of next year, so Q2 2026. I think we’ve talked before that that initial rate kind of ties into a more local gathering system that will be restricted for some time. We expect that those restrictions start to go away in 2027, allowing us to bring production kind of up into that 17.5 million cubic feet a day. There are some additional debottlenecking options that we expect to have online in 2028 that doubles that to 35 million a day. That kind of talks about that first discovery well.

On the back of that successful discovery well, we see a number of follow-up locations. We intend to spot two of those, so the second and third well into the Visselhöhe structure in January 2027. Timing is partially driven by our ability to secure the rig that we want to use to drill those wells and really does not impact our expectation around online time. We expect to get those wells drilled through the first half of 2027 and expect them tied in and producing by the second half of 2028.

Maybe I can summarize that. I think the takeaway is quite interesting. We’re excited about Germany, but the simple math is the 1.6 net, sorry, 1.6 net wells that we drilled with the Osterheide and the Visselhöhe well that’ll come on mid-next year. That’s going to add about 25 million a day of gas, which is, again, about 25% of our production. The two wells that Darcy just walked us through, the two Visselhöhe follow-up wells, that’ll be 1.3 net wells. Once those are on in the second half of 2028, that’ll be another 20-plus million a day of gas. If you zoom out, three net wells, you know it’s going to add about 45 million a day of gas, which is almost half of all our European gas production. Again, that’s why we’re excited about Germany, just the materiality of these wells.

Kudos to the team to be able to get the rig we wanted and do all the pre-planning to really reduce that cycle time. Thanks for that, Darcy.

Travis Ferguson, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning, Vermilion Energy: Thanks. The next one here for Darcy, jumping into the Netherlands. A couple of discoveries in the quarter. Could you give a bit more background on what we’re seeing there?

Lars Glemser, Vice President, CFO, Vermilion Energy: Yeah. In the Netherlands, we drilled two successful wells in a field called Alpenhuizen. We discovered gas in two zones in each of those wells. We discovered gas in the Rottliegen and Zechstein formations, two of the primary formations that we do chase in the Netherlands. We have discovered about 16 BCF gross of recoverable gas. The F&D costs for those wells are less than CAD 1.50 per MCF. We talked about tying those wells in Q4 of this year. Both wells are tied into existing facilities now. We are currently producing the first of those two wells at a rate of about 15 million cubic feet per day, limited by surface constraints at that location. We intend to kind of bring the second well on as capacity opens up there.

Great. Thanks, Darcy. Then the last one here, over to Randy. You noted the Q3 drilling program in the Deep Basin has exceeded expectations so far. Can you provide a bit more color on what we’re seeing today in the results?

Sure. Yeah. As Lars has mentioned, we completed 12 wells in Q3. Of these 12 wells, six of them tested at over 10 million a day of gas production. We also had some strong liquid rates from the other wells in the program. With our focus on profitability, most of these wells were deferred and will be coming on production over the next month. We will have a better sense of performance. Those initial test results definitely exceeded our expectations. When we think about it on the capital front, the program also did come in under budget. That is really what we are starting to see, the cost-benefits of running a consistent free rig drilling program, which we plan to, as we noted in the call, through 2026 and into 2027. Overall, very pleased with the results of this program.

Great. Thanks, Randy. Dion, back to you. That’s all we have for additional questions.

Travis Ferguson, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning, Vermilion Energy: Thanks, Travis. With that, I’d like to thank everyone again for participating in our Q3 results conference call. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference call for today. We thank you very much for your participation.

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