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Akfen Yenilenebilir Enerji AS

IBSE:AKFYE

Turkey / Utilities / Independent Power & Renewable Electricity Producers

10Y DCF Growth Exit

Stock Price

16.00 TRY

Fair Value

20.44 TRY

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	9.0% - 8.0%	8.5%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.0% - 0.8%	0.3%
Fair Value	₺18.60 - ₺23.17	₺20.44
Upside	14.0% - 42.1%	25.3%

2.9%

Revenue 10y CAGR

69.8%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

16.6%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

Stock Price

16.00 TRY

Fair Value

20.44 TRY

Upside

25.3%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(TRY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	5,097	5,571	5,766	5,881	5,999	6,119	6,241	6,366	6,493	6,623	6,756
% Growth	-19.1%	9.3%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	2,875	3,887	4,023	4,104	4,186	4,269	4,355	4,442	4,531	4,621	4,714
% of Revenue	56.4%	69.8%	69.8%	69.8%	69.8%	69.8%	69.8%	69.8%	69.8%	69.8%	69.8%

Supporting Calculations

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(TRY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		3,887	4,023	4,104	4,186	4,269	4,355	4,442	4,531	4,621	4,714	4,714
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(1,095)	(1,133)	(1,156)	(1,179)	(1,203)	(1,227)	(1,251)	(1,276)	(1,302)	(1,328)	(1,177)

EBIT		2,792	2,890	2,947	3,006	3,067	3,128	3,190	3,254	3,319	3,386	3,537
Pro forma Taxes		(586)	(607)	(619)	(631)	(644)	(657)	(670)	(683)	(697)	(711)	(743)
NOPAT	1,373	2,206	2,283	2,328	2,375	2,423	2,471	2,520	2,571	2,622	2,675	2,794

Capital Expenditures	(1,977)	(1,137)	(1,133)	(1,416)	(1,229)	(1,259)	(1,227)	(1,238)	(1,242)	(1,236)	(1,239)	(1,239)
NWC Investment	59	(23)	(10)	(6)	(6)	(6)	(6)	(6)	(6)	(6)	(7)	(1)
(+) D&A	1,136	1,095	1,133	1,156	1,179	1,203	1,227	1,251	1,276	1,302	1,328	1,177

Free Cash Flow	592	2,140	2,273	2,063	2,320	2,360	2,465	2,527	2,599	2,682	2,758	2,732
% Growth		261%	6%	-9%	12%	2%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	-1%

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