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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.0% - 8.0% | 8.5% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 4.8x - 5.3x | 5.1x |
Fair Value | ₺18.21 - ₺20.91 | ₺19.54 |
Upside | 11.7% - 28.2% | 19.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(TRY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 5,097 | 5,571 | 5,766 | 5,881 | 5,999 | 6,119 |
% Growth | -19.1% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 2,875 | 3,887 | 4,023 | 4,104 | 4,186 | 4,269 |
% of Revenue | 56.4% | 69.8% | 69.8% | 69.8% | 69.8% | 69.8% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(TRY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 3,887 | 4,023 | 4,104 | 4,186 | 4,269 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (1,095) | (1,133) | (1,156) | (1,179) | (1,203) | |
EBIT | 2,792 | 2,890 | 2,947 | 3,006 | 3,067 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (586) | (607) | (619) | (631) | (644) | |
NOPAT | 1,373 | 2,206 | 2,283 | 2,328 | 2,375 | 2,423 |
Capital Expenditures | (1,977) | (1,137) | (1,133) | (1,416) | (1,229) | (1,259) |
NWC Investment | 59 | (23) | (10) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
(+) D&A | 1,136 | 1,095 | 1,133 | 1,156 | 1,179 | 1,203 |
Free Cash Flow | 592 | 2,140 | 2,273 | 2,063 | 2,320 | 2,360 |
% Growth | 261% | 6% | -9% | 12% | 2% |