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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.5x - 8.3x | 7.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.2x - 8.0x | 7.6x |
| Fair Value | R44.67 - R53.08 | R48.87 |
| Upside | 9.7% - 30.4% | 20.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Shoprite Holdings Ltd | SHP | JSE:SHP |
| Clicks Group Limited | CLS | JSE:CLS |
| Bid Corporation Limited | BID | JSE:BID |
| Dis-Chem Pharmacies Limited | DCP | JSE:DCP |
| Boxer Retail Limited | BOX | JSE:BOX |
| KAL Group Limited | KAL | JSE:KAL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SHP | CLS | BID | DCP | BOX | KAL | ||
| JSE:SHP | JSE:CLS | JSE:BID | JSE:DCP | JSE:BOX | JSE:KAL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 6.3% | NM- | 13.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 7.8% | 11.1% | 31.3% | 11.1% | NM- | 13.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.5% | 14.5% | 9.1% | 12.1% | NM | -5.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.2% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.3% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.5% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 3.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.74x | 1.78x | 0.71x | 0.80x | 0.93x | 0.25x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.4x | 17.1x | 11.4x | 12.9x | 13.3x | 7.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 14.5x | 19.5x | 13.3x | 15.8x | 16.7x | 8.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.4x | 12.9x | 17.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 7.9x | 9.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 7.9x | 8.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 754 | 754 | 754 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,681 | 5,980 | 6,279 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,487) | (2,487) | (2,487) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,194 | 3,493 | 3,792 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 70.6 | 70.6 | 70.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 45.23 | 49.47 | 53.70 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/ZAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 45.23 | 49.47 | 53.70 | 40.70 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 11.1% | 21.5% | 31.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SHP | CLS | BID | DCP | BOX | KAL | |
| Enterprise Value | 186,447 | 80,898 | 161,647 | 30,465 | 36,581 | 5,361 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 11,482 | 2,705 | 7,553 | 824 | 219 | 314 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3,102 | 198 | 1,029 | 375 | 28 | 67 | |
| (-) Debt | (55,194) | (3,786) | (23,013) | (5,374) | (4,393) | (2,683) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 90 | 0 | (400) | (4) | 0 | (185) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 145,927 | 80,015 | 146,815 | 26,286 | 32,435 | 2,874 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 540.4 | 238.1 | 335.2 | 857.3 | 457.4 | 70.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 270.02 | 336.11 | 438.00 | 30.66 | 70.91 | 40.70 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 270.02 | 336.11 | 438.00 | 30.66 | 70.91 | 40.70 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |