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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.8% - 10.8% | 11.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.5x - 2.8x | 2.6x |
| Fair Value | $5.67 - $7.42 | $6.51 |
| Upside | -45.1% - -28.1% | -36.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 612 | 732 | 867 | 1,015 | 1,134 | 1,234 | 1,277 | 1,302 | 1,328 | 1,355 | 1,382 |
| % Growth | 26.8% | 19.7% | 18.5% | 17.0% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | -44 | 75 | 129 | 182 | 203 | 233 | 241 | 246 | 251 | 256 | 261 |
| % of Revenue | -7.3% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 17.9% | 17.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 75 | 129 | 182 | 203 | 233 | 241 | 246 | 251 | 256 | 261 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 229 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (173) | (145) | (104) | (117) | (127) | (131) | (134) | (137) | (140) | (142) | |
| EBIT | (98) | (16) | 77 | 271 | 335 | 110 | 112 | 114 | 117 | 119 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0 | 0 | (11) | (38) | (47) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (17) | |
| NOPAT | (106) | (98) | (16) | 66 | 233 | 288 | 95 | 97 | 98 | 100 | 102 |
| Capital Expenditures | (83) | (117) | (147) | (180) | (217) | (185) | (192) | (195) | (191) | (192) | (193) |
| NWC Investment | (28) | (26) | (29) | (32) | (26) | (21) | (9) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| (+) D&A | 78 | 173 | 145 | 104 | 117 | 127 | 131 | 134 | 137 | 140 | 142 |
| Free Cash Flow | (138) | (68) | (47) | (41) | 107 | 209 | 25 | 30 | 39 | 42 | 46 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | 95% | -88% | 18% | 31% | 7% | 10% | ||