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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 10.2x - 12.2x | 11.2x |
| Fair Value | ₹447.32 - ₹590.87 | ₹516.70 |
| Upside | -26.5% - -2.9% | -15.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 666,356 | 661,631 | 641,393 | 661,000 | 674,220 | 687,704 | 701,458 | 715,488 | 729,797 | 744,393 | 759,281 |
| % Growth | -13.1% | -0.7% | -3.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 45,444 | 12,000 | 16,000 | 13,000 | 13,260 | 13,525 | 13,796 | 14,072 | 14,353 | 14,640 | 14,933 |
| % of Revenue | 6.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| EBITDA | 12,000 | 16,000 | 13,000 | 13,260 | 13,525 | 13,796 | 14,072 | 14,353 | 14,640 | 14,933 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (6,092) | (5,905) | (6,086) | (6,208) | (6,332) | (6,458) | (6,588) | (6,719) | (6,854) | (6,991) | |
| EBIT | 5,908 | 10,095 | 6,914 | 7,052 | 7,193 | 7,337 | 7,484 | 7,634 | 7,786 | 7,942 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,654) | (2,826) | (1,936) | (1,975) | (2,014) | (2,054) | (2,096) | (2,137) | (2,180) | (2,224) | |
| NOPAT | 28,420 | 4,254 | 7,268 | 4,978 | 5,078 | 5,179 | 5,283 | 5,388 | 5,496 | 5,606 | 5,718 |
| Capital Expenditures | (6,027) | (2,000) | (2,000) | (2,000) | (2,040) | (2,081) | (2,040) | (2,054) | (2,058) | (2,051) | (2,054) |
| NWC Investment | 3,836 | 180 | 771 | (747) | (503) | (514) | (524) | (534) | (545) | (556) | (567) |
| (+) D&A | 5,972 | 6,092 | 5,905 | 6,086 | 6,208 | 6,332 | 6,458 | 6,588 | 6,719 | 6,854 | 6,991 |
| Free Cash Flow | 32,201 | 8,526 | 11,944 | 8,317 | 8,742 | 8,917 | 9,177 | 9,388 | 9,612 | 9,853 | 10,088 |
| % Growth | -74% | 40% | -30% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | |