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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.6x - 2.9x | 2.8x |
Fair Value | $264.93 - $298.24 | $281.05 |
Upside | 56.8% - 76.5% | 66.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 4,728 | 5,308 | 5,819 | 6,584 | 6,639 | 6,971 | 7,215 | 7,359 | 7,506 | 7,657 | 7,810 |
% Growth | 0.8% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 0.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 693 | 857 | 999 | 1,137 | 1,016 | 1,278 | 1,323 | 1,349 | 1,376 | 1,404 | 1,432 |
% of Revenue | 14.7% | 16.1% | 17.2% | 17.3% | 15.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 857 | 999 | 1,137 | 1,016 | 1,278 | 1,323 | 1,349 | 1,376 | 1,404 | 1,432 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (57) | (90) | (100) | (101) | (63) | (65) | (67) | (68) | (69) | (71) | |
EBIT | 800 | 909 | 1,037 | 1,137 | 1,215 | 1,257 | 1,282 | 1,308 | 1,334 | 1,361 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (136) | (154) | (176) | (193) | (207) | (214) | (218) | (222) | (227) | (231) | |
NOPAT | 502 | 664 | 754 | 861 | 944 | 1,008 | 1,044 | 1,064 | 1,086 | 1,107 | 1,130 |
Capital Expenditures | (32) | (64) | (70) | (79) | (33) | (35) | (36) | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) |
NWC Investment | (3) | (52) | (46) | (69) | (5) | (30) | (22) | (13) | (13) | (14) | (14) |
(+) D&A | 89 | 57 | 90 | 100 | 101 | 63 | 65 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 71 |
Free Cash Flow | 555 | 605 | 728 | 813 | 1,007 | 1,007 | 1,051 | 1,083 | 1,105 | 1,128 | 1,151 |
% Growth | 20% | 12% | 24% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |