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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 3.4x - 5.4x | 4.4x |
Fair Value | $15.53 - $22.43 | $18.92 |
Upside | -9.6% - 30.6% | 10.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 |
Revenue | 225,781 | 225,000 | 238,300 | 247,168 | 250,422 | 256,895 |
% Growth | -4.3% | -0.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% |
EBITDA | 35,062 | 37,250 | 39,950 | 42,916 | 44,220 | 45,214 |
% of Revenue | 15.5% | 16.6% | 16.8% | 17.4% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
EBITDA | 37,250 | 39,950 | 42,916 | 44,220 | 45,214 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (21,250) | (21,508) | (22,024) | (21,636) | (21,640) | |
EBIT | 16,000 | 18,442 | 20,892 | 22,584 | 23,574 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (4,000) | (4,610) | (5,223) | (5,646) | (5,894) | |
NOPAT | 10,818 | 12,000 | 13,831 | 15,669 | 16,938 | 17,681 |
Capital Expenditures | (20,370) | (20,500) | (21,575) | (21,575) | (21,650) | (21,650) |
NWC Investment | 1,470 | 114 | (1,939) | (1,293) | (474) | (944) |
(+) D&A | 20,638 | 21,250 | 21,508 | 22,024 | 21,636 | 21,640 |
Free Cash Flow | 12,556 | 12,864 | 11,826 | 14,825 | 16,450 | 16,727 |
% Growth | 2% | -8% | 25% | 11% | 2% |