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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 6.0% - 7.0% | 6.5% |
| Fair Value | ¥13.80 - ¥24.76 | ¥17.10 |
| Upside | -25.5% - 33.7% | -7.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| Revenue | 5,933 | 7,408 | 8,619 | 9,792 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | 9,709 | |
| % Growth | -1.0% | 24.9% | 16.3% | 13.6% | -0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 337 | 468 | 559 | 823 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | |
| % of Revenue | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 468 | 559 | 823 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | 816 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (157) | (171) | (230) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (228) | (368) | |
| EBIT | 312 | 389 | 593 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 588 | 448 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (44) | (54) | (83) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (63) | |
| NOPAT | 168 | 268 | 334 | 510 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 506 | 385 |
| Capital Expenditures | (231) | (139) | (152) | (163) | (500) | (500) | (388) | (388) | (388) | (388) | (388) | (388) |
| NWC Investment | 8 | (204) | (168) | (162) | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (87) |
| (+) D&A | 141 | 157 | 171 | 230 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 228 | 368 |
| Free Cash Flow | 87 | 81 | 185 | 415 | 245 | 234 | 346 | 346 | 346 | 346 | 346 | 278 |
| % Growth | -7% | 128% | 124% | -41% | -5% | 48% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -20% | |