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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.8% - 10.8% | 11.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x - 9.6x | 8.6x |
| Fair Value | ¥26.02 - ¥31.56 | ¥28.70 |
| Upside | 36.6% - 65.7% | 50.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 6,074 | 8,009 | 9,908 | 12,057 | 13,564 | 14,581 | 15,092 | 15,394 | 15,701 | 16,016 | 16,336 |
| % Growth | 11.3% | 31.9% | 23.7% | 21.7% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 472 | 626 | 827 | 989 | 1,451 | 1,706 | 1,766 | 1,801 | 1,837 | 1,874 | 1,911 |
| % of Revenue | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| EBITDA | 626 | 827 | 989 | 1,451 | 1,706 | 1,766 | 1,801 | 1,837 | 1,874 | 1,911 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (145) | (161) | (126) | (142) | (153) | (158) | (161) | (165) | (168) | (171) | |
| EBIT | 482 | 666 | 862 | 1,309 | 1,553 | 1,607 | 1,640 | 1,672 | 1,706 | 1,740 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (91) | (127) | (164) | (249) | (295) | (305) | (312) | (318) | (324) | (331) | |
| NOPAT | 377 | 390 | 540 | 698 | 1,060 | 1,258 | 1,302 | 1,328 | 1,355 | 1,382 | 1,409 |
| Capital Expenditures | (11) | (365) | (173) | (136) | (225) | (241) | (200) | (204) | (209) | (204) | (206) |
| NWC Investment | (121) | (378) | (371) | (420) | (294) | (199) | (100) | (59) | (60) | (61) | (63) |
| (+) D&A | 7 | 145 | 161 | 126 | 142 | 153 | 158 | 161 | 165 | 168 | 171 |
| Free Cash Flow | 252 | (208) | 157 | 270 | 684 | 971 | 1,160 | 1,226 | 1,251 | 1,284 | 1,312 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | 72% | 154% | 42% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | |