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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 7.8% - 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.8% - 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Fair Value | ¥8,281 - ¥10,493 | ¥9,203 |
| Upside | -18.8% - 2.8% | -9.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
| Revenue | 1,671,865 | 1,178,000 | 1,953,050 | 2,162,979 | 2,391,000 | 2,282,500 | |
| % Growth | 4.4% | -29.5% | 65.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | -4.5% | |
| EBITDA | 546,798 | 306,600 | 488,000 | 618,019 | 682,000 | 732,500 | |
| % of Revenue | 32.7% | 26.0% | 25.0% | 28.6% | 28.5% | 32.1% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 306,600 | 488,000 | 618,019 | 682,000 | 732,500 | 732,500 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (22,752) | (18,000) | (32,910) | (17,000) | (40,750) | (15,295) | |
| EBIT | 283,848 | 470,000 | 585,109 | 665,000 | 691,750 | 717,205 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (82,316) | (136,300) | (169,682) | (192,850) | (200,608) | (207,989) | |
| NOPAT | 375,549 | 201,532 | 333,700 | 415,428 | 472,150 | 491,143 | 509,216 |
| Capital Expenditures | (16,123) | (16,758) | (20,123) | (22,123) | (15,550) | (16,100) | (16,100) |
| NWC Investment | 3,517 | (24,744) | 38,832 | 10,518 | 11,424 | (5,436) | 1,429 |
| (+) D&A | 17,856 | 22,752 | 18,000 | 32,910 | 17,000 | 40,750 | 15,295 |
| Free Cash Flow | 380,798 | 182,782 | 370,409 | 436,732 | 485,024 | 510,356 | 509,840 |
| % Growth | -52% | 103% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 0% | |