Black Swan Capital LLC

Millions of observations of white swans led to the conclusion: “All swans are white.” The eventual discovery of just one Black Swan invalidated the consensus belief.
This was the elegant analogy philosopher Karl Popper used to define the fallacy of inductive reasoning in his famous 1959 essay, “The Problem of Induction.”

This idea grounds us.

We focus on risk, remain skeptical of the consensus, and do the best we can to inch the odds of success in our favor... each and every trade.
Our approach rests on three areas of analysis: fundamental, technical, and sentiment.
We analyze a great deal of macroeconomic material to develop our underlying story, our trading script. Our objective is to determine the fundamental driving forces behind the movement of exchange rates and global capital and develop plausible alternative scenarios.
We analyze price action over various timeframes using pattern recognition, wave analysis, oscillators, inter-market correlations, retracement levels and standard trend line analysis.
We evaluate sentiment both qualitatively and quantitatively.
In summary, we look for an edge. When we think we’ve found it we act.