Currency Analysis & Comment

The US dollar faces downside risks today as US payrolls should slow and annual benchmark revisions could be significant. That could more than offset some safe-haven flows on the back of souring China...

The US dollar remains in corrective mode on the back of this week's tariff news and the drop in 10-year US yields. Tomorrow's US jobs data will have a big say in whether this correction needs to go...

USD/CAD looks ready for more downside after breaking key support—bears might be taking control. With Trump delaying tariffs, CAD bulls could see opportunities in EUR/CAD for a potential...

We observe that key China proxies like AUD have erased their risk premium on the back of a consensus view that Beijing will secure a deal with the US and prevent an escalation in trade tensions. We...

Trump’s initial tariff push jolted FX markets, with GBP/USD rebounding on hopes the UK avoids trade restrictions. Traders eye Thursday’s BoE meeting, where a likely rate cut could shape GBP/USD’s...

Markets are readjusting after Trump’s last-minute deals with Mexico and Canada which delayed tariffs by a month. From now on, markets may well handle tariff threats even more cautiously, but a new...

Our assumption in December was that a US-Canada trade war could take USD/CAD to 1.50. That is now a clear possibility. The two key factors for FX are how long US tariffs will stay in place and the...

The Trump administration has surprised FX markets by imposing large tariffs earlier than expected. The US dollar has strengthened sharply on the back of lower global growth expectations and...

CAD and MXN tumbled yesterday as Trump reiterated that he will impose 25% tariffs on both countries by tomorrow. Whether he delivers on this threat will determine price action for the broader FX...

It's a busy day ahead in FX markets. The highlight should be another 25bp cut from the ECB, but we'll get plenty of fourth-quarter GDP data from the US and Europe. Elsewhere, we think this week's...

The currency market has followed the stabilization in tech stock sentiment, and today’s focus will shift to central bank meetings. We don’t think the Fed's conditions for a dovish tilt have been met,...

Central bank moves this week will impact EUR/USD, with the ECB likely cutting rates and the Fed holding steady. Traders await ECB and Fed actions, with inflation trends and political factors...

Equity market futures are tentatively testing stability this morning, but DeepSeek’s knock-on effect on US tech valuations may be longer-lasting. The US dollar proved inefficient as a haven in the...

The US dollar's fate hinges on key central bank decisions and Trump’s trade rhetoric this week. Fed and ECB moves, combined with trade tensions, will likely determine the dollar's next...