Market Overview

As former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi once said: "In a dark room, you move with tiny steps. You don't run, but you do move." Recent events over the last few weeks have reminded us of...

The Fed’s March meeting comes at a pivotal moment. While rates are expected to hold, investors will dissect Powell’s comments on recession fears and Trump’s trade policies. Clear communication by...

The surge in macro uncertainty related to tariffs, including the possibility of a global trade war, has complicated the Fed’s already difficult task of setting interest rates to accommodate an...

S&P 500 steady as US debt soars past defense spending. Here's what major has happened in the last seven days in charts. S&P 500 Corrections Are Generally Good Buying Opportunities Goldman...

Investors are scrambling to make sense of the on-again, off-again nature of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the Federal Reserve’s next moves, and the broader geopolitical uncertainty gripping the...

The recent downshift in estimates for US economic output in the first quarter persists, based on the revised median nowcast for a set of analytics compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The sluggish...

There are visible signs of disagreement at the Bank of England on the pace of rate cuts required this year. But with wage growth and inflation remaining sticky, we expect the Bank to keep rates on...

We haven’t had to change our subjective probabilities for our three alternative economic scenarios for quite some time. We are doing so today and may have to do so more frequently in coming months or...

This will be an interesting week. After all, the S&P 500 is not often down for five consecutive weeks, so one has to think this might be the week the market attempts a rebound. From what I can...

Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.” The entire...

The S&P 500 fell on Thursday, March 13, closing 10.1% below its previous peak – a decline that many analysts define as a “correction,” which is a slide ranging from 10% to 20%. A “bear market,”...

In hindsight, markets are easy to assess, yet extremely challenging to forecast. For example, as we will show, it’s undeniable that value, particularly large-cap value stocks, have been in vogue...

Look, I know that traders sometimes think their job is to overreact. And media folks benefit from overreacting. And political strategists have been genetically bred to overreacting. But a bit of...

Last week, we covered recession odds based on Trump admin policies, tariff focus, and DOGE revelations. Since then, Polymarket odds for the US recession moved slightly up, from 39 to 40% for...