Market Overview

Investors are scrambling to make sense of the on-again, off-again nature of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the Federal Reserve’s next moves, and the broader geopolitical uncertainty gripping the...

The recent downshift in estimates for US economic output in the first quarter persists, based on the revised median nowcast for a set of analytics compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The sluggish...

It has been an interesting correction. The average retail investor was “buying the dip” despite having an extremely bearish outlook. This is an interesting point because, as shown, the retail...

There are visible signs of disagreement at the Bank of England on the pace of rate cuts required this year. But with wage growth and inflation remaining sticky, we expect the Bank to keep rates on...

We haven’t had to change our subjective probabilities for our three alternative economic scenarios for quite some time. We are doing so today and may have to do so more frequently in coming months or...

In a must-read new report, my friends at Goehring & Rozencwajg write, “A major shift in the global monetary system may be imminent. History offers a clear precedent: every past commodity bull...

Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.” The entire...

The S&P 500 fell on Thursday, March 13, closing 10.1% below its previous peak – a decline that many analysts define as a “correction,” which is a slide ranging from 10% to 20%. A “bear market,”...

Look, I know that traders sometimes think their job is to overreact. And media folks benefit from overreacting. And political strategists have been genetically bred to overreacting. But a bit of...

Last week, we covered recession odds based on Trump admin policies, tariff focus, and DOGE revelations. Since then, Polymarket odds for the US recession moved slightly up, from 39 to 40% for...

The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt. The White...

The closely watched U.S. February CPI report comes out today. Headline annual inflation is seen rising by 2.9% and core CPI is forecast to increase by 3.2%. Investors should brace for volatility...

Investors are on edge ahead of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report today, which economists expect to show a slight cooling in inflation. Forecasts point to a 3.2% year-over-year increase,...

As new presidential terms go, this one’s off to a rocky start for the economic outlook, thanks largely to disruptive tariff plans that risk triggering a global trade war. Perhaps most surprising is...