Bonds Analysis & Comment

Bond Market investors are bumping up the odds of a US recession.Everyone can see the bond market is throwing a tantrum: front-end yields have rapidly declined signaling nervousness about the state of...

Our recent article, Swaps and Basis Trades Warn Of Mounting Liquidity Problems, touched on negative interest rate swap spreads as an omen of potential liquidity problems. To stay on the topic of...

If long-end bond yields spiral out of control, the Fed could start injecting liquidity again: a step-by-step guide of how it works. When a few weeks ago 30-year bond yields briefly flirted with the...

Bonds I: Kerfuffle. Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company’s Friday earnings call: “There will be a kerfuffle in the Treasury markets because of all the...

Rising US bond prices have offset the slide in US equities so far this year, but the outlook for fixed income may be more precarious than the current rear-window perspective suggests. President...

It's time to talk about Bond Vigilantes. How Does a Proper Bond Vigilantes Trade Work? Contrary to popular belief, a true bond vigilantes trade doesn't only require bond yields to go up. Bond yields...

Last week, heavily leveraged bond trades were unwound in a spectacular fashion.And while the worst might be behind for now, I don’t see a structural fix to this bond market imbalance.There are two...

One week of trading doesn’t change decades of precedent for the world’s primary “safe” asset, but reports that the global marketplace is rethinking risk for US government bonds is deeply unsettling...

What is up with the bond market? Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs. Another rumor claims the bond market...

It was an enjoyable day in stocks, but a more interesting day in rates, with the 10-year rate, based on my last check, soaring by 20 bps to 4.2%. The 10-year rate has been positively correlated with...

President Trump’s latest announcement on tariffs is a reminder that macro uncertainty is high and will probably remain so for the near term. “What we’re going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield ticked up in February to the highest spread since 2008. The estimate is based on the average “fair value” calculation via three models run by...

The Federal Reserve may continue to be patient before deciding on the next change in monetary policy, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting and has been rapidly adjusting to changing expectations for...

The year started out on a solid footing for the economy and the financial markets were pricing in expectations for sustained economic growth. But a lot has changed since the year’s optimistic...