Bonds Analysis & Comment

Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025. Our Leading Inflation Indicator...

President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but...

Several risk factors that could end the bond market’s party, but for the moment US fixed-income markets are having a good year so far, based on prices through Thursday’s close (Jan. 30). Using a set...

We have repeated several times the importance and implications of rising/falling interest rates. And today we come back to this theme while discussing long-term US treasury bond yields. Above, we...

Is this the calm before the storm? Or has the danger passed? The bond market is focused on news and data in the days and weeks ahead that will provide context for answering these key questions....

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield eased in December after rising for two straight months. The analysis uses a “fair value” estimate. Despite the downshift, the market continues to...

In just 4 years, the trend (and investment theme) of low interest rates has been turned on its head. During this time, home and auto loan rates have gone from consumer-friendly to unfriendly. Quite...

Inflation risk is topical again, as I’ve been discussing this week. As a result, the bond market is demanding a higher yield premium to compensate for the possibility that inflation will be higher...

The risk of reflation has been bubbling for several months and yesterday’s economic news on prices in the services sector fueled new concerns. The bond market is paying attention, or so the renewed...

The question asked of us most often recently: “Why are bond yields rising?” After verbally answering it plenty of times, it’s time to put our answer in writing for everyone to see. The answer will...

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped....

Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity...

There’s little about recent history that reflects stability, with at least one exception: the average trailing payout rate on a globally diversified portfolio. There’s been a lot of churning in...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rose in October relative to a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. The increase marks the first time since April that the...