Bonds Analysis & Comment

The “fair value” for the US 10-year Treasury yield edged higher in March vs. the previous month and is now approaching the 4.0% mark – the highest estimate in 16 years. The analysis is based on the...

What is up with the bond market? Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs. Another rumor claims the bond market...

It was an enjoyable day in stocks, but a more interesting day in rates, with the 10-year rate, based on my last check, soaring by 20 bps to 4.2%. The 10-year rate has been positively correlated with...

President Trump’s latest announcement on tariffs is a reminder that macro uncertainty is high and will probably remain so for the near term. “What we’re going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield ticked up in February to the highest spread since 2008. The estimate is based on the average “fair value” calculation via three models run by...

The Federal Reserve may continue to be patient before deciding on the next change in monetary policy, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting and has been rapidly adjusting to changing expectations for...

Sticky inflation risk is still a threat for the bond market, but concern that the US economy is slowing has become the main factor driving Treasury yields lower recently. The US 10-year yield...

At a time of increased uncertainty about inflation, the relatively elevated real yields available in inflation-indexed Treasuries offer a partial antidote of certainty for anxious investors. Using...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rebounded sharply in January, rising to its highest level in nine months, based on a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com....

Yields on most assets around the world have edged higher this year. The increase reflects a range of concerns, including sticky inflation risk and greater uncertainty for global trade flows. The...

Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025. Our Leading Inflation Indicator...

President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but...

Several risk factors that could end the bond market’s party, but for the moment US fixed-income markets are having a good year so far, based on prices through Thursday’s close (Jan. 30). Using a set...

We have repeated several times the importance and implications of rising/falling interest rates. And today we come back to this theme while discussing long-term US treasury bond yields. Above, we...