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Investing.com - Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BME:BBVA) (NYSE:BBVA) with an Equalweight rating and set a price target of EUR19.00.
The firm forecasts a 20-22% return on tangible equity (ROTE) for 2026-28 post-AT1s, supported by 4% revenue compound annual growth rate in Spain and 8% growth in Mexico in Mexican pesos.
Morgan Stanley expects BBVA’s cost-to-income ratio to improve from 40% in 2024 to 37% by 2028, while cost of risk is projected to remain stable at 135-140 basis points.
The firm’s estimates are 2-6% above consensus for Spain operations and broadly in line with consensus for Mexico, offset by lower projections for Turkey and the ’Rest of Businesses’ division.
BBVA targets an average ROTE of approximately 22% pre-AT1s for 2025-28, while Morgan Stanley estimates closer to 21%, with the difference primarily driven by Turkey, South America, and ’Other Businesses’ segments.
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