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On Tuesday, Bernstein analysts adjusted their outlook on McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) shares, raising the price target from $290.00 to $300.00. The firm sustained its Market Perform rating on the fast-food giant’s stock, which currently trades near its 52-week high of $317.90. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears slightly overvalued at current levels, with technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions. The move follows McDonald’s fourth-quarter 2024 performance, which surpassed expectations with a slight increase in global same-store sales (SSS) of 0.4% compared to the consensus estimate of a 0.9% decline.
McDonald’s reported that international markets showed signs of improvement, which helped balance weaker sales in the United States. Specifically, the International Operated Markets (IOM) saw a 0.1% rise in SSS, while International Developmental Licensed (IDL) markets experienced a more robust 4.1% increase. These figures contributed to the analyst’s modest uplift in sales forecasts for 2025. The company maintains strong financial health with an overall "GOOD" rating from InvestingPro, supported by a solid revenue base of $25.9 billion in the last twelve months.
Despite the positive sales trajectory, Bernstein analysts cautioned that they do not anticipate a significant enhancement in McDonald’s Operating Margins, which currently reflect a healthy gross profit margin of 56.6%. This outlook is based on several factors, including an average check that lags behind guest count growth, potential impacts of tariffs, and ongoing macroeconomic pressures in certain international markets. The analysts suggest that simply gaining market share might not suffice to drive substantial margin improvements, even as the company maintains a strong return on assets of 15.2%.
Furthermore, the firm pointed out concerns regarding McDonald’s reduced free cash flow (FCF) conversion and the absence of selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) leverage despite improving sales trends. These factors, according to the analysts, could justify a lower valuation multiple for McDonald’s shares in the future. However, they also noted that these dynamics are unlikely to influence the stock’s narrative in the immediate term.
In other recent news, McDonald’s Corporation has seen several adjustments to its stock price target following its fourth-quarter earnings report. BMO Capital Markets has raised the target from $335 to $340, maintaining an Outperform rating. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $2.83 slightly missed the consensus estimate of $2.85, attributed to higher-than-expected operating and administrative costs. However, McDonald’s reported a sequential acceleration in U.S. comparable sales and provided guidance for expected operating margin expansion by 2025.
JPMorgan also expressed confidence in McDonald’s, raising the price target to $300 from $280, while retaining an Overweight rating. The firm highlighted the company’s resilience amidst aggressive competition and challenging market conditions. Meanwhile, Citi analysts maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target to $360 from $336, pointing to McDonald’s strategic focus on value offerings and customer engagement.
Goldman Sachs upgraded the price target to $335 from $313, holding a Neutral rating. The firm noted McDonald’s potential to stimulate customer traffic and sales growth through its blend of value offerings and menu innovations. Lastly, Jefferies increased the price target to $349 from $345, reiterating a Buy rating, citing the company’s long-term growth algorithm and total shareholder return opportunity as attractive factors. These developments reflect the overall positive outlook on McDonald’s financial trajectory and market position.
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