Bernstein reiterates Walmart stock outperform with $117 target

On Friday, Bernstein SocGen Group maintained a positive stance on Walmart stock (NYSE:WMT), reiterating an Outperform rating and a $117.00 price target. The reaffirmation came after Walmart reported its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025, surpassing expectations but providing a fiscal year 2026 (FY26) guidance that fell short of analyst forecasts. According to InvestingPro data, Walmart has delivered impressive returns with a 70% gain over the past year, though 11 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward for the upcoming period.

Walmart’s Q4 performance showcased a strong finish to the year, with a 5.2% growth in constant currency net sales and a 9.4% increase in EBIT, exceeding its long-term goals of 4% top-line growth and 4-8% EBIT growth. The company’s total revenue reached $681 billion in the last twelve months, with a healthy gross profit margin of 24.85%. Despite the robust quarter, Walmart’s FY26 EBIT growth projection of 3.5-5.5% did not meet the anticipated 9.4%, according to consensus.

The lower guidance for FY26 is attributed to several specific factors, including the effect of a leap year and the margin dilution resulting from the VIZIO acquisition. Moreover, Walmart’s history of conservative guidance, as demonstrated in Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10, is seen as a prudent approach amid uncertainties related to tariffs and policies. As a prominent player in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry, Walmart maintains a strong financial position with moderate debt levels and has impressively maintained dividend payments for 53 consecutive years. For deeper insights into Walmart’s financial health and future prospects, check out the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

Bernstein SocGen Group’s analyst highlighted that Walmart’s cautious forecast does not alter their positive outlook on the company’s ability to continue gaining market share and enhancing its e-commerce unit economics. The analyst suggested that any potential decline in Walmart’s stock price following the conservative guidance could present a buying opportunity for investors. With a beta of 0.55 and strong return metrics, including a return on equity of 22%, Walmart continues to demonstrate resilience in various market conditions.

In other recent news, Walmart has been the subject of several analyst reviews following its latest earnings and revenue announcements. KeyBanc Capital Markets raised Walmart’s price target to $105, highlighting the company’s strong fourth-quarter earnings and market share gains. Walmart’s comparable sales increased by 4.6% in the U.S. and 6.8% at Sam’s Club, with robust growth in e-commerce and advertising sectors. Meanwhile, Citi maintained a Buy rating with a $120 price target, emphasizing Walmart’s market share gains and the potential for its high-growth business segments to bolster future margins.

Evercore ISI adjusted its price target for Walmart to $107, citing challenges such as foreign exchange headwinds but noting the company’s strategic reinvestments and market leadership. Despite lowering earnings forecasts, Evercore remains optimistic about Walmart’s competitive advantages. Stifel also raised its price target to $99, acknowledging Walmart’s ability to increase operating profit faster than sales and its significant market share in the U.S. grocery sector. TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating with a $110 price target, praising Walmart’s technological advancements and stable performance in a volatile market. These developments reflect a cautiously optimistic outlook among analysts regarding Walmart’s future performance and strategic initiatives.

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