BofA cuts MTR Corporation stock rating, trims price target

Published 07/03/2025, 08:58
BofA cuts MTR Corporation stock rating, trims price target

On Friday, BofA Securities adjusted their stance on MTR Corporation Limited (66:HK) (OTC: MTCPY), downgrading the stock from Neutral to Underperform and reducing the price target to HK$24.00 from the previous HK$26.50. The decision by BofA Securities analyst Karl Choi comes amid expectations of significant capital expenditures for new railway projects, particularly the Northern Link (NL), which are anticipated to constrain the company’s dividend payouts in the near future. The transportation giant, currently valued at $21 billion, has maintained dividend payments for 24 consecutive years, according to InvestingPro data.

In his statement, Choi noted that despite anticipating no issues with raising debt financing, due to the high government ownership of MTR Corporation, the large capital expenditures required for new railway lines are likely to limit dividend growth. He pointed out that while MTR Corporation is expected to book substantial development project profits over the next two years, there is a potential downside to dividend per share (DPS) if the company chooses to conserve cash. Currently, the stock offers a dividend yield of 2.82% and maintains a healthy current ratio of 2.32, suggesting strong liquidity to meet short-term obligations.

The analyst further explained that the risk of MTR Corporation’s dividend yield could increase to reflect the bond-like nature of the stock’s returns. This expectation is based on the company’s potential financial strategy in light of its upcoming expenditures. Consequently, BofA Securities has revised their price objective downward by 9%, citing a lower net asset value (NAV) and maintaining the same 17% target discount as before.

The downgrade and new price target reflect BofA Securities’ revised outlook on MTR Corporation’s financial prospects, particularly concerning shareholder returns. The report highlights the potential impact of the company’s strategic investments on its dividend policy, which is a critical factor for investors seeking income through stock dividends.

In other recent news, MTR Corporation Limited has experienced a notable shift in analyst sentiment. HSBC analyst Raymond (NSE:RYMD) Liu downgraded MTR’s stock rating from Buy to Hold and reduced the price target from HK$34.60 to HK$27.00. This downgrade follows a less-than-expected outcome for the Tung Chung East Station project phase 1 tender, which has raised concerns about MTR’s ability to fund its future railway projects. Liu’s analysis highlighted potential challenges for MTR in covering rising capital expenditures, which could impact earnings and raise questions about the sustainability of its dividend. The revised price target reflects a more cautious outlook on MTR’s stock, taking into account the risks associated with lower earnings and investor concerns about dividend sustainability. Previously considered a defensive pick due to its stable Hong Kong transport operations, MTR now faces investor apprehension due to these developments. The lack of immediate catalysts to boost the share price further influenced HSBC’s decision to downgrade the rating. Investors will continue to closely monitor MTR’s strategies to manage its capital expenditure and maintain dividend payouts amid these challenges.

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