BofA Securities lifts Progressive stock target to $312, upgrades to Buy

On Monday, BofA Securities analyst Joshua Shanker increased the price target for Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR) shares to $312 from $297 and upgraded the stock’s rating to Buy from Neutral. The adjustment follows a notable decline in Progressive’s stock price and a record-setting month for the company’s customer growth. According to InvestingPro data, 12 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward, with price targets ranging from $183 to $324.

Shanker noted that after a previous downgrade to Neutral earlier this month, Progressive’s shares experienced an 8% drop, underperforming the S&P 500 by over 10 percentage points. However, the company’s announcement on April 16 of its March 2025 results revealed a significant addition of 572k new personal auto customers, marking the highest growth month in Progressive’s history in both nominal terms and as a percentage since at least 2002.

Following the release of what were perceived as weak February 2025 results, analysts, including Shanker, had anticipated a slowdown in Progressive’s growth trajectory. However, the March 2025 report prompted an upward revision of earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, leading to an increase in the price objective.

Despite Progressive’s shares falling 4% in the days after the March report, underperforming the S&P 500 by 8 percentage points, Shanker sees the potential for more than 20% upside from the stock’s April 25 closing price to the new price target of $312. Citing the significant upside potential and the company’s history of strong risk-adjusted returns over the past decade, the analyst reinstated a Buy rating for Progressive.

In other recent news, Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) reported mixed financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025. The company’s net premiums written increased by 17% for the quarter, reaching $22.206 billion, while net premiums earned rose by 20% to $19.409 billion. However, net income for March decreased by 42% to $522 million, though it showed a 10% increase to $2.567 billion for the quarter. Analysts from Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James and BMO Capital Markets have adjusted their price targets for Progressive, with Raymond James lowering it to $36 while maintaining an Outperform rating, and BMO raising it to $288, also with an Outperform rating. Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating with a price target of $304, acknowledging a shortfall in March operating earnings per share due to higher-than-expected catastrophe losses. Despite these challenges, Progressive’s Personal Auto segment experienced a 21.9% year-over-year growth in policies in force, surpassing expectations. BMO Capital Markets noted potential tariff impacts on margins but expressed a favorable outlook for Progressive’s Personal Insurance Fund. These developments reflect the dynamic nature of Progressive’s current market position and financial performance.

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