Citi maintains buy rating on Cogent stock ahead of trial results

Investing.com - Citi maintained its buy rating and $15.00 price target on Cogent (NASDAQ:COGT) stock, opening a 30-day Upside Catalyst Watch ahead of upcoming clinical trial results. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $7 to $25, with the stock currently trading at $7.10, showing strong returns over recent months despite its high Price/Book ratio of 7.3.

The firm expects topline results from the Phase 2 SUMMIT trial’s registrational portion for bezuclastinib in non-advanced systemic mastocytosis (NonAdvSM) patients in July. While the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 5.13 and holds more cash than debt, InvestingPro analysis indicates rapid cash burn - a critical factor for investors to monitor (discover 8 more key ProTips with InvestingPro).

Citi believes investors have essentially priced a successful readout out of the stock through 2024 and 2025 year-to-date, creating a positive risk/reward setup at current levels.

The analyst conducted a scenario analysis for the trial, concluding that the market has underestimated bezuclastinib’s potential to demonstrate efficacy superiority versus Blueprint’s Ayvakit while overestimating chances of severe safety signals.

Citi’s base case predicts at least 50% upside, expecting bezuclastinib to show efficacy 75-100% better than Ayvakit with a manageable safety profile.

In other recent news, Cogent Biosciences reported a net loss of $0.52 per share for the first quarter of 2025, which was narrower than H.C. Wainwright’s initial forecast of $0.65 per share. The company’s research and development expenses were approximately $63.0 million, while selling, general, and administrative expenses amounted to $11.9 million. As of the end of the first quarter, Cogent had about $245.7 million in cash and equivalents, which H.C. Wainwright believes will support operations into late 2026. Despite reducing the price target to $12 from $14, H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating on Cogent, citing a positive outlook for the next 12 months.

Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $24.00 price target for Cogent, ahead of pivotal trial data for its drug bezuclastinib. The firm emphasized the upcoming results from the SUMMIT Part 2 trial, which will evaluate bezuclastinib in non-advanced systemic mastocytosis. Piper Sandler outlined specific success benchmarks, including a significant placebo-adjusted benefit and minimal adverse effects. The research firm noted that Cogent’s risk/reward profile remains favorable despite recent stock movements.

Additionally, Cogent is expected to have two more pivotal readouts later this year for advanced systemic mastocytosis and gastrointestinal stromal tumor indications.

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