Cogent stock holds Buy rating, $101 target from TD Cowen

Published 27/01/2025, 16:42
Cogent stock holds Buy rating, $101 target from TD Cowen

On Monday, TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating with a $101.00 price target on Cogent Communications (NASDAQ:CCOI), highlighting the stock as the third most favored idea in the Communications Infrastructure and Telecom (BCBA:TECO2m) Services sector. Currently trading at $74.68, with a market capitalization of $3.5 billion, the stock has analyst targets ranging from $55 to $102. According to InvestingPro, the company has maintained dividend payments for 13 consecutive years, with several more key insights available to subscribers.

Cogent Communications recently reported results that appeared negative at first glance, due to factors such as exiting an unprofitable contract, the unwinding of T-Mobile's CSA spend, and increased operational expenses and capital expenditures related to data centers. However, when one-time items are excluded, Cogent's On-Net revenue showed growth both quarterly and year-over-year. InvestingPro data reveals impressive revenue growth of 24% over the last twelve months, though the company's overall Financial Health Score stands at "FAIR" based on comprehensive analysis of multiple factors.

The company's Corporate and Net Centric segments are exhibiting stable trends, with the "heritage" Corporate segment growing approximately 4% and Net Centric around 10%. Additionally, cost reductions and synergies from the Sprint GMG acquisition are ahead of schedule, with 75% completion already. Cogent's initiatives for Waves readiness are on track, which is expected to significantly contribute to the company's performance in 2025, and long-term Wave targets remain in place.

Cogent's IPv4 business has been a bright spot, delivering better-than-expected results with positive commentary on increased volumes and price hikes. The most significant revelation from the recent report was the increased capital expenditures allocated to preparing excess data center capacity. Management is optimistic about the interest from potential buyers, some of whom are willing to purchase the entire portfolio, and remains confident in achieving the $10MM/MW sale pricing.

Despite concerns, the preparation capital expenditures are projected to stay elevated through the second quarter of 2025 to maintain the value markers. While Cogent's financial quarters are characterized by complexity and numerous moving parts, the overall narrative for the company remains positive, except for the near-term increase in capital expenditures. TD Cowen's outlook for Cogent is favorable, particularly for 2025, with an expectation for the company to surpass EBITDA estimates. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is trading at premium multiples across various metrics, with a notable dividend yield of 5.26%. For deeper insights into Cogent's valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to subscribers.

In other recent news, Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. has announced an extension to the term of its CEO, David Schaeffer, along with new compensation arrangements. The company has seen strong revenue growth of 24% in the last year, with Schaeffer's tenure now set to continue until the end of 2027. His annual cash incentive has been set at a target of $500,000, contingent on company performance metrics. UBS and KeyBanc Capital Markets have also provided their perspectives on Cogent's performance, with UBS initiating coverage with a Buy rating and KeyBanc forecasting a tripling of revenue in 2025 for Cogent's Wavelength business. In the third quarter of 2024, Cogent reported mixed financial results with total revenue of $257.2 million and an increase in EBITDA to $60.9 million. Despite a revenue decline, the company realized cost savings from the Sprint Global Markets acquisition and experienced a surge in wavelength and IPv4 leasing revenue.

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