Constellation Brands stock falls as TD Cowen cuts price target on weak beer demand

Published 03/09/2025, 21:50
Constellation Brands stock falls as TD Cowen cuts price target on weak beer demand

Investing.com - Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) stock fell to $146.49, down over 30% year-to-date, after TD Cowen lowered its price target to $152.00 from $180.00 while maintaining a Hold rating due to weakening beer sales. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued at current levels.

The alcoholic beverage company revised its beer organic growth forecast downward to -4% to -2%, a significant reduction from its previous guidance of flat to +3% growth, citing continued subdued consumer demand. InvestingPro data shows analysts expect an overall revenue decline of 8% this fiscal year, with analyst price targets ranging from $123 to $247.

TD Cowen noted that management’s guidance had depended on sequential improvement in the second quarter, which failed to materialize. The firm’s tracking indicated Constellation’s second-quarter beer sales and volumes declined -1.1% and -2.9% quarter-to-date through August 23, compared to 0.5% and -1.3% in the first quarter, respectively.

Constellation continues to attribute the slowdown to macroeconomic pressures affecting Hispanic consumers, resulting in lower trip frequency and reduced spending per trip. Nielsen panel data referenced by TD Cowen shows Hispanic purchase frequency down -5.0% over the past 12 weeks on a rolling 52-week basis.

Management anticipates an additional 160 basis points of EBIT margin pressure on beer in fiscal year 2026, on top of the forecast for a 20 basis point decline, with 100 basis points coming from volume deleverage and 60 basis points from tariffs, including the incremental 25% tariffs on aluminum cans, bringing the total impact to approximately $70 million. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a 2.7% dividend yield, and management has been actively buying back shares, according to InvestingPro data.

In other recent news, Constellation Brands has seen a series of analyst adjustments and corporate actions. Evercore ISI lowered its price target for the company to $170, maintaining an Outperform rating, following a guidance downgrade and industry conference presentation. Similarly, Jefferies reduced its price target to $179, citing challenges within the Hispanic consumer segment, yet retained a Buy rating. Meanwhile, TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating with a $180 price target, adjusting its fiscal 2026 earnings per share estimate to $12.62, at the lower end of the company’s guidance, due to concerns about beer margins and growth.

In corporate developments, Constellation Brands announced equity awards for CFO Garth Hankinson, with restricted and performance share units set to vest by 2028. The company also maintained an Outperform rating from Evercore ISI, despite uncertainties regarding potential tariffs on Mexican imports. These adjustments and actions reflect current market conditions and strategic decisions impacting Constellation Brands.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.