Daiwa maintains negative view on China solar sector amid inventory drop

Published 19/09/2025, 09:24
Daiwa maintains negative view on China solar sector amid inventory drop

Investing.com - Daiwa has reiterated its negative outlook on the China solar sector despite a nine-week consecutive decline in industry inventory levels, according to a research note published Wednesday. The sector’s heightened volatility, evidenced by an average beta of 2.21 according to InvestingPro data, suggests significant market sensitivity relative to broader indices.

The firm reported that photovoltaic (PV) glass average selling prices (ASPs) for 2.0mm and 3.2mm products remained unchanged week-over-week at CNY13/m2 and CNY20/m2 respectively as of September 18, while nominal operational capacity held steady at 89,290 tons per day.

Industry inventory levels fell 6.83% week-over-week to 15.03 days, continuing a nine-week downward trend that reversed a previous 14-week uptrend that began on April 10, according to Daiwa’s analysis.

The research note highlighted price increases in several solar materials, with transparent EVA film rising 8.0-8.1% week-over-week to CNY6.12-6.21/m2, white EVA film up 7.3-7.4% to CNY6.09-6.17/m2, and EPE film increasing 3.7-5.3% to CNY6.12-6.16/m2 as of September 16.

Despite market optimism surrounding solar auxiliary material suppliers, Daiwa maintained its conservative stance, citing "lackluster module demand after rush installations in June" and reaffirmed Underperform ratings on Flat Glass Group (HK:6865) at HKD12.33 and Xinyi Solar (HK:968) at HKD3.58. For deeper insights into solar sector valuations and comprehensive analysis of over 1,400 stocks, including detailed Fair Value assessments, visit InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Sunrun has been active with its financial maneuvers, pricing a $510 million securitization of leases and power purchase agreements. This marks its fifth issuance in 2025 and the third in the third quarter. Analysts have weighed in on Sunrun’s prospects, with Goldman Sachs reiterating a Buy rating, setting a price target of $19. Barclays, on the other hand, maintained an Equalweight rating with a $15 target, citing Sunrun’s strategic momentum and solid positioning for future market changes. RBC Capital upgraded Sunrun to Outperform, raising its price target to $16, based on increased clarity regarding long-term opportunities. Meanwhile, China’s efforts to combat deflation have positively impacted the U.S. solar sector, providing a favorable environment for companies like Sunrun. In a different vein, former President Donald Trump criticized renewable energy sources, including solar, for their economic impact. These developments highlight the dynamic environment in which Sunrun is operating, with various factors influencing its market position.

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