Green Plains stock to benefit from $40-50M EBITDA boost from 45Z credits

Published 18/09/2025, 15:18
Green Plains stock to benefit from $40-50M EBITDA boost from 45Z credits

Investing.com - Green Plains Renewable Energy (NASDAQ:GPRE), a $723 million market cap renewable energy company, has entered into an agreement with a Freepoint Commodities affiliate to sell 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credits that will be generated in 2025 under the Inflation Reduction Act. According to InvestingPro data, the company has maintained strong liquidity with current assets exceeding short-term obligations.

The initial credits will come from low-CI ethanol production at Green Plains’ three Nebraska facilities, with full-year credits included where operations allow, according to UBS.

Some credits will be generated before the expected launch of carbon capture later in 2025, as the company continues to progress under its new management team.

UBS analyst Manav Gupta believes the $40-50 million in EBITDA associated with the 45Z credits are not reflected in current Street estimates and will drive earnings upside for the company.

UBS maintained its Neutral rating and $7.00 price target on Green Plains stock following the announcement.

In other recent news, Green Plains Inc. has made significant strides with a series of strategic developments. The company announced an agreement with Freepoint Commodities to sell Clean Fuel Production Credits generated in 2025 under the Inflation Reduction Act. These credits will initially come from Green Plains’ three Nebraska facilities, with plans to include three additional facilities in the future. In a move to enhance financial stability, Green Plains agreed to sell its Tennessee ethanol plant to POET for $190 million in cash, aiming to reduce debt and improve liquidity.

Additionally, Oppenheimer upgraded Green Plains Renewable Energy’s stock rating from Perform to Outperform, citing the company’s debt reduction efforts following the sale of its Obion plant. This strategic sale allowed Green Plains to pay off expensive mezzanine debt and bolster its balance sheet. In leadership changes, Green Plains appointed Chris Osowski as the new Chief Executive Officer. Osowski has been with the company since January 2022 and was a member of the Executive Committee since March 2025. These developments highlight Green Plains’ ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position and leadership.

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