Jefferies downgrades BMW stock rating to Hold on China headwinds

Published 15/10/2025, 09:22
© Reuters

Investing.com - Jefferies has downgraded Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (ETR:BMWG) stock to Hold from Buy, lowering its price target to €85 from €92, while raising Mercedes Benz Group AG (ETR:MBGn) price target to €60 from €55, citing a shift in German premium automaker risk-reward balance.

In a research note published Wednesday, Jefferies analysts stated that BMW faces near-term challenges from China market uncertainty and tariff timing, despite the company’s long-term strategy centered around its upcoming Neue Klasse vehicle architecture.

The firm reduced BMW’s 2025 EBIT estimate by approximately 9% to €9.4 billion, with automotive EBIT cut by 12% to €6.2 billion.

For Mercedes-Benz, Jefferies maintained its Hold rating while raising its price target, noting the company’s "earnings resilience and relative Software-Defined Vehicle leadership."

The firm highlighted Mercedes’ product cycle revival and confidence in continued cash generation, which could revive expectations for share buybacks.

Jefferies expects BMW’s Q3 results on November 5 to show auto revenue of €29.4 billion, up 5.6%, driven by North American strength and China stabilization. However, the firm projects auto EBIT margin of just 4.3% (5.2% adjusted), reflecting headwinds from U.S. shipments and payments to Chinese dealers.

The analysts noted that while BMW has "dominated the PR debate around Neue Klasse setting new technology standards," Mercedes-Benz’s approach to software-defined vehicles may have "retained a relative edge, from higher IP to faster rollout across models/powertrain."

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