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Investing.com - JPMorgan downgraded APA Group (ASX:APA) (OTC:APAJF) from Overweight to Neutral while raising its price target to AUD8.80 from AUD8.30.
The rating change comes despite APA Group delivering strong fiscal year 2025 performance, with revenue, EBITDA, and distributions meeting JPMorgan’s forecasts, while FY26 EBITDA guidance exceeded expectations at the midpoint.
APA Group has refined its long-term strategy, shifting away from large East Coast electricity projects to focus on initiatives that complement existing assets, including East Coast Gas Grid expansion, Beetaloo Basin development, remote grid projects, and gas-powered generation opportunities.
JPMorgan views this strategic shift positively, noting it better aligns with APA’s core competencies, and acknowledges that the company’s organic growth pipeline for FY26-FY28 has increased from A$1.8 billion to A$2.1 billion.
Despite these positive developments, JPMorgan believes deployment of growth capital expenditure will take longer than expected due to full order books for long lead items through the remainder of the decade, with gas turbines specifically mentioned as a pain point given global producers’ order books are full until after 2028.
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