Stock market today: Stocks fall as investors rotate out of tech into Jackson Hole
On Tuesday, JPMorgan adjusted its financial outlook for Boot Barn (NYSE:BOOT) Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOOT), increasing the price target from $196.00 to $207.00. The firm maintained an Overweight rating on the company’s stock. JPMorgan’s analyst highlighted the potential for higher earnings per share (EPS) than previously anticipated, driven by several key factors observed during a virtual roadshow with Boot Barn’s executive team. According to InvestingPro data, seven analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward, with the stock showing a strong 38.6% return over the past year. The company currently trades at a P/E ratio of 26.56, suggesting premium valuation relative to near-term earnings growth potential.
The roadshow featured CEO John Hazen, CFO Jim Watkins, VP of Investor Relations & Financial Planning Mark Dedovesh, and Director of Investor Relations & Finance Megan Coetzee. The discussions led to insights indicating an EPS power that could reach $6.95 by fiscal year 2026, surpassing both the Street’s estimate of $6.24 and management’s guidance range of $5.50 to $6.40.
The enhanced EPS forecast is supported by three main drivers: second-quarter same-store-sales growth, which as of May 14, was reported at 9%—higher than management’s full-quarter guidance of 4-6%; potential for significant same-store-sales improvement in the second half of the year; and gross margin (GPM) upside from the company’s exclusive brand market share opportunities, including a low single-digit percentage price increase on exclusive brands to offset tariffs.
According to JPMorgan’s analysis, these factors could lead to a same-store-sales growth of 5% in fiscal year 2026, which is notably higher than the current guidance of a decrease of 2% to an increase of 2%. Management has indicated that for every additional point of comparable sales, there’s an approximate 35% EBITDA flow-through rate. When combined with the anticipated market share gains in exclusive brands in the second half of fiscal year 2026, this could substantiate the $6.95 EPS opportunity, marking a 17% upside compared to the current plan. The company has demonstrated strong execution with revenue growth of 14.64% and maintains a healthy current ratio of 2.45, indicating solid operational efficiency.
In addition, the firm pointed out that Boot Barn’s EPS for fiscal year 2025 was $5.87, beating the high-end of management’s initial full-year guidance by 21%. This past performance, coupled with the current analysis, suggests a robust financial trajectory for the retailer. JPMorgan’s revised price target reflects confidence in Boot Barn’s growth prospects and strategic initiatives. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock appears to be trading above its intrinsic value, despite maintaining a moderate debt level and strong liquidity position.
In other recent news, Boot Barn Holdings Inc. reported its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.22, slightly below the forecast of $1.25. Despite this, the company achieved a 17% increase in total revenue year-over-year, reaching a record $1.9 billion for fiscal 2025. Analysts at UBS have raised their price target for Boot Barn to $210, citing the company’s strong position in the westernwear and workwear sectors. UBS maintains a Buy rating, highlighting Boot Barn’s potential to add 330 stores in the next five years, which could drive an approximate 13% compound annual growth rate in EPS from fiscal year 2025 to 2030.
Williams Trading also increased its price target for Boot Barn to $190, praising the company’s growth prospects and the impact of new CEO John Hazen’s strategic initiatives. Citi analysts raised their price target to $180, maintaining a Buy rating and expressing confidence in Boot Barn’s management and strategies to improve underperforming segments. The company’s expansion strategy includes plans to open 65-70 new stores in fiscal 2026, contributing to its robust performance.
Boot Barn’s focus on exclusive brands has resulted in increased penetration to 38.6% in fiscal 2025. The company has been proactive in addressing potential tariff impacts, with strategies in place to mitigate costs and maintain merchandise margins. These recent developments reflect Boot Barn’s strategic moves to cement its dominance in the retail categories it serves.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.