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On Monday, KeyBanc Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Warner Brothers Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD), reducing the price target from $14.00 to $13.00, while still maintaining an Overweight rating on the company’s shares. Currently trading at $8.02, the stock has declined 24.6% year-to-date. The revision reflects analyst Brandon Nispel’s view that the company’s revenue, particularly from content in Studios, is coming in below expectations, and that adjusted EBITDA of $7.67 billion is also slightly below the consensus.
Nispel noted that the first quarter of 2025 did not mark the positive turnaround for the Studio segment that was anticipated. However, he remains optimistic about the second quarter, citing the strong performance of the Minecraft franchise as a potential driver for improvement. With the next earnings report due on May 8, the analyst expects the upcoming quarterly messaging to reveal the impact of macroeconomic headwinds on the advertising sector, prompting a more cautious stance.
Despite these challenges, KeyBanc sees opportunities for Warner Brothers Discovery to enhance profitability in its direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment. Nispel believes that the company has several strategies it can employ to improve DTC profitability and continues to anticipate robust growth in DTC subscribers moving forward. For a deeper analysis of WBD’s financial health and growth prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which includes detailed metrics and expert insights.
In other recent news, Warner Bros. Discovery is expected to report a year-over-year decline in consolidated revenues by 7.8% to $9.2 billion, according to UBS analysts. This projection comes with a slight reduction in EBITDA to $1.98 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in its Networks division. Meanwhile, BofA Securities has maintained a Buy rating on Warner Bros. Discovery, adjusting their first-quarter revenue estimate to $8.9 billion, with an EBITDA forecast of $2.05 billion. The company’s recent film, "Minecraft," performed strongly at the box office, earning over $300 million globally during its opening weekend, which could signal a positive trend for the Studios segment. Analysts at Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed a Market Perform rating with a price target of $11.00, despite the film’s success. Additionally, Dr. John C. Malone will transition to Chair Emeritus at Warner Bros. Discovery, maintaining his involvement in the company. UBS analysts project continued progress towards direct-to-consumer profit goals, although they anticipate challenges due to tough comparisons to previous theatrical performances. Lastly, the company faces potential advertising revenue declines, with UBS forecasting a 13% drop by 2025, influenced by historical patterns during past recessions.
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