KeyBanc raises McDonald’s stock target to $335, keeps Overweight

On Tuesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) shares, increasing the price target from the previous $320.00 to $335.00, while continuing to recommend the stock as Overweight. Currently trading at $308.42 with a market capitalization of $221 billion, McDonald’s shares are near their 52-week high of $317.90. This price target change follows the company’s fourth-quarter 2024 performance, which showcased stronger-than-expected international same-store sales (SSS) growth. This growth, however, was partly negated by declining SSS and margin contraction in the U.S. market.According to InvestingPro analysis, McDonald’s stock is currently showing signs of being overbought, with technical indicators suggesting careful consideration before new entries.

Despite the U.S. market challenges, McDonald’s saw positive traffic growth in the fourth quarter, surpassing that of its industry peers. The company’s focus on value offerings helped regain customers after an E. coli outbreak. Looking ahead, SSS trends may experience volatility in the first quarter of 2025 due to weather conditions and sluggish industry growth. Nevertheless, KeyBanc anticipates that McDonald’s will see improvements in check growth throughout the year, driven by innovation and marketing efforts. The company maintains a strong financial position with a P/E ratio of 25.84, though this indicates a relatively high valuation relative to near-term earnings growth.

KeyBanc has made a slight adjustment to McDonald’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, reducing the forecast to $12.39. This revision accounts for foreign exchange impacts and marginally lower margins for company-operated restaurants in the first half of the year. Despite this, the firm has raised its price target, citing better earnings visibility and confidence in McDonald’s long-term ability to achieve market share gains.

The new price target of $335.00 is based on a 27x multiple of KeyBanc’s projected 2025 EPS for McDonald’s. KeyBanc’s analysis suggests that the fast-food giant’s strategic initiatives are likely to bolster its market position and financial performance in the coming years.

In other recent news, McDonald’s Corporation has been the subject of several analyst upgrades following its fourth-quarter performance. Bernstein analysts have raised their price target from $290.00 to $300.00, maintaining a Market Perform rating. This follows McDonald’s better-than-expected Q4 results, with a slight increase in global same-store sales and signs of improvement in international markets.

Likewise, BMO Capital Markets increased its price target on McDonald’s shares from $335.00 to $340.00, reiterating an Outperform rating. Despite a slight earnings per share shortfall, McDonald’s reported a sequential acceleration in U.S. comparable sales and projected operating margin expansion by 2025.

In parallel, JPMorgan increased McDonald’s price target to $300 from $280, maintaining an Overweight rating. This adjustment comes after a strong Q4 performance by McDonald’s, which had a positive ripple effect on the broader quick service restaurant sector.

Citi analysts also maintained a Buy rating on McDonald’s shares, increasing the price target to $360 from $336. They highlighted McDonald’s strategic focus on its core strengths and customer engagement as key drivers for the company’s improving performance.

Lastly, Goldman Sachs updated its outlook on McDonald’s shares, increasing the price target to $335 from $313. The firm continues to hold a Neutral rating on the stock, reflecting optimism about McDonald’s potential to stimulate customer traffic and sales growth through its strategic blend of value offerings and menu innovations.

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