KeyCorp stock rating downgraded to Neutral by Citi despite NII outlook

Published 24/07/2025, 11:02
KeyCorp stock rating downgraded to Neutral by Citi despite NII outlook

Investing.com - Citi downgraded KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) from Buy to Neutral while raising its price target to $20.00 from $19.00. The regional bank, with a market capitalization of $20.91 billion, has shown strong momentum with a 12.5% return year-to-date.

The downgrade comes despite KeyCorp management revising its net interest income (NII) guidance higher, with fourth-quarter 2025 now expected to be up 11%+ year-over-year compared to the previous outlook of 10%+. The bank also raised its net interest margin (NIM) forecast to approximately 2.75% from the previous 2.7%+. Notable for income investors, KeyCorp maintains a 4.36% dividend yield and has consistently paid dividends for 54 consecutive years.

KeyCorp stock outperformed on the day of its earnings report, closing up 2.35% compared to the KBW Bank Index’s 0.65% gain. Citi sees a path to a 2.75-2.8% exit-rate NIM, suggesting potential upside to the NII guidance.

While Citi expects management to hit fee, expense, and credit targets in 2025, the firm believes the improved outlook is now largely priced into the stock. KeyCorp is trading at an implied approximately 10.5% cost of equity, in line with Citi’s normalized assumption.

The price target increase to $20 reflects a lower cost of equity assumption, aligned with option-implied betas, but Citi sees better risk/reward opportunities elsewhere in the sector.

In other recent news, KeyCorp reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings with revenue exceeding expectations at $1.84 billion, marking a 2.22% surprise over the forecast. Despite this revenue success, the company’s earnings per share fell short at $0.25, missing the projected $0.35 by 28.57%. BofA Securities raised its price target for KeyCorp to $21.00 from $20.00, maintaining a Buy rating, citing an improved net interest margin (NIM) outlook. Meanwhile, TD Cowen increased its price target to $20.00 from $18.00, maintaining a Hold rating, due to strong loan growth trends that are boosting net interest income. These developments indicate a positive shift in the bank’s financial outlook despite the earnings per share miss.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.