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On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) initiated coverage on Atlantic Union Bankshares (NYSE:AUB) with an Equalweight rating and a price target of $32.00. The firm's analysis suggests that Atlantic Union Bankshares is poised to outperform its peers in terms of loan losses, citing the bank's superior underwriting capabilities. According to InvestingPro data, the bank has maintained dividend payments for 32 consecutive years and raised them for 14 straight years, currently offering a 5.6% yield. InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis suggests the stock is currently trading near its fair value. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have projected net charge-offs for Atlantic Union at 19 basis points (bps) for both 2025 and 2026, which is significantly lower than the median bank's expected 31bps and 37bps, respectively.
The bank's exposure to government contractors within its lending portfolio is seen as a potential risk factor, given its geographical footprint. However, Morgan Stanley does not anticipate a reduction in government spending to cause a sustained increase in credit losses for Atlantic Union, thanks to its strong underwriting record and minimal exposure to government contractors, which represent approximately 3% of combined pro forma loans for Atlantic Union and Sandy Spring. Recent InvestingPro data shows the bank maintains strong fundamentals with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26 and positive revenue growth of 14.5% in the last twelve months. Get access to 12 more exclusive InvestingPro Tips and comprehensive financial analysis through the Pro Research Report.
Despite this, the firm has applied a lower target price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple to Atlantic Union compared to its peers, to account for the potential for higher idiosyncratic quarterly loan losses and the significant uncertainty surrounding future changes in fiscal policy. The $32 price target is based on a 9x target P/E multiple on the bank's estimated 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $3.59, which suggests a 32% upside potential.
Morgan Stanley's EPS estimate for 2026 stands at $3.59, which is 12% below the consensus estimate of $4.06. The lower projection is attributed almost entirely to anticipated lower loan balances. Additionally, the target P/E multiple of 9x is conservative when compared to the peer average of 10x, reflecting the perceived risks to the bank's loan growth and the higher likelihood of idiosyncratic loan losses. The consensus among other analysts skews heavily towards an Overweight rating for Atlantic Union Bankshares, with 75% favoring this stance. InvestingPro data reveals analyst price targets ranging from $37 to $52, with the stock currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.87. The bank's next earnings report is scheduled for April 24, 2025.
In other recent news, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation has completed its merger with Sandy Spring Bancorp (NASDAQ:SASR), valued at approximately $1.3 billion. This transaction positions Atlantic Union as a significant regional banking franchise in the Mid-Atlantic, with pro forma total assets of $38.7 billion. The merger terms included the conversion of Sandy Spring common stock into Atlantic Union shares, and several Sandy Spring executives have joined Atlantic Union's board. Additionally, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James recently adjusted its price target for Atlantic Union Bankshares to $37, down from $41, while maintaining an Outperform rating. This change follows discussions about the bank's strategic direction and recent merger activities. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also revised their price target for Atlantic Union to $44, citing a decrease in net interest margin and an increase in provision for credit losses. Atlantic Union's Q3 2024 earnings report showed an EPS of $0.82, exceeding expectations, though revenue fell short at $218.4 million against a forecast of $222.37 million. These developments reflect the bank's ongoing strategic adjustments and financial performance in a dynamic market environment.
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