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On Friday, H.C. Wainwright reaffirmed its Buy rating and a price target of $30.00 for Neumora Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NMRA) stock. The firm's analysts expressed continued confidence in the drug's mechanism and pharmacology despite the surprising and disappointing results from the KOASTAL-1 study.
They highlighted the statistically significant improvement in SHAPS scores among female patients treated with the drug navacaprant compared to those receiving a placebo. This outcome provides optimism for the ongoing KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 studies.
The analysts pointed out that the better results observed in female patients align with previous reports indicating gender differences in response to treatments for major depressive disorder (MDD). The findings from the European Neuropsychopharmacology journal in 2023 and the International Journal of Neuropsychopharmacology in 2022 support this observation. Management at Neumora Therapeutics has noted some evidence suggesting the KORA mechanism, which navacaprant is based on, might affect genders differently, but this has not been conclusively determined.
The analysts mentioned that the Phase 2 study of navacaprant had a significant proportion of female patients, approximately 70%, which could be noteworthy considering women are more likely to suffer from MDD and are treated with antidepressants more often than men. While it is uncertain if the FDA would approve the drug exclusively for female patients, the market opportunity might only be modestly reduced if the drug indeed has a differential effect in women. The analysts also noted the high placebo response among male patients.
The 80mg dose of navacaprant has been well-tolerated by patients, and Neumora Therapeutics is set to conduct pharmacokinetic analyses to investigate any exposure-related effects. Based on these considerations, H.C. Wainwright reiterated its Buy rating and $30 price target for Neumora Therapeutics stock.
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