Palo Alto stock momentum questioned—Deutsche skeptical on future re-acceleration

Published 08/01/2025, 09:34
© Kfir Sivan, Palo Alto Networks PR

On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) revised his outlook on Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), downgrading the cybersecurity firm's stock rating from Buy to Hold and adjusting the price target to $190.00, a decrease from the previous target of $207.00. The company, currently valued at $115 billion and trading at a P/E ratio of 41.5, appears overvalued according to InvestingPro analysis.

Deutsche cited a shift in customer preference towards individual best-of-breed cybersecurity solutions over integrated best-of-suite offerings as a key factor for the downgrade.

Palo Alto Networks, known for its comprehensive cybersecurity platform, faces a challenging year ahead according to Deutsche. While the company has maintained strong revenue growth of 15% over the last twelve months, InvestingPro data indicates net income is expected to decline this year.

The analyst believes that the company could struggle to meet the high expectations of investors, who anticipate continuous benefits from market consolidation. Deutsche analysis suggests that the company may see a more modest increase in estimates than previously expected.

The analyst also referred to the company's calculated Remaining Performance Obligations (cRPO) as an indicator of business momentum, though he acknowledged it as an imperfect measure. Expectations are set for only a modest re-acceleration in this metric.

Furthermore, Deutsche pointed out that a significant number of firewall customers have already transitioned to Advanced Subscriptions, implying that the potential for upside in Net New Annual Recurring Revenue (NGS NNARR) could be less significant compared to the growth rates of the past three years, which were 44%, 45%, and 24%, respectively.

The revised assessment from Deutsche Bank arrives as the cybersecurity sector prepares for a potentially difficult year, with Palo Alto Networks being a prominent player facing these headwinds. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro rates the company's overall financial health as GREAT, with particularly strong scores in growth and profitability.

The new price target reflects a more conservative view of the company's growth prospects amid changing market dynamics. For deeper insights into PANW's valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Palo Alto Networks has seen significant developments. The cybersecurity company was downgraded from Neutral to Sell by Guggenheim Securities due to concerns over momentum and Federal IT spending moderation. Despite this, the company has made strides with its platformization strategy, acquiring QRadar SaaS and launching the Prisma Access Browser.

Additionally, Palo Alto Networks has achieved Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP) High Authorization for its suite of AI-powered cybersecurity solutions. This authorization allows federal agencies to utilize the company's solutions for highly sensitive, unclassified data in cloud computing environments.

Following the company's recent two-for-one forward stock split, several firms including Scotiabank (TSX:BNS), Evercore ISI, and Stifel have adjusted their price targets while maintaining positive ratings on the stock. However, the sudden resignation of Dr. Helene D. Gayle, a member of the company's board, due to personal reasons, has been a notable development. These are the recent developments in Palo Alto Networks.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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