Ranpak stock price target raised to $10 from $8 at Craig-Hallum on Walmart deal

Investing.com - Craig-Hallum raised its price target on Ranpak Holdings (NYSE:PACK) to $10.00 from $8.00 on Wednesday, maintaining a Buy rating following the company’s announcement of a major deal with Walmart. The stock, currently trading at $5.49, has surged over 26% in the past week, according to InvestingPro data.

The protective packaging company disclosed a transformative agreement that makes it Walmart’s preferred protective packaging vendor, according to an 8-K filing. The deal includes $100 million in automation spend expected to be recognized as revenue over the next few years. With analysts maintaining a bullish consensus and targets ranging from $5 to $10, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently fairly valued.

The agreement also includes $200 million in paper consumable spend over a 10-year period based on the warrant agreement, though Craig-Hallum estimates the actual revenue impact could be approximately three times larger.

Craig-Hallum noted that while the 8-K filing mentions a $300 million deal size, the total value could reach $700-800 million when accounting for the full revenue impact of the consumable spend component.

The firm views the agreement as a major validation for Ranpak’s protective packaging offerings and expects it to serve as a positive catalyst for the stock, though it has not adjusted its financial estimates at this time.

In other recent news, Ranpak Holdings Corp. reported its Q2 2025 earnings, which showed a loss per share of $0.09, missing the forecasted loss of $0.06. The company’s revenue for the quarter was $92.3 million, slightly below the expected $94.3 million. Despite these financial shortfalls, Ranpak announced a significant expansion of its partnership with Walmart. This strategic agreement involves the installation of Ranpak AutoFill systems at five of Walmart’s Next Generation Fulfillment Centers, expanding from the existing implementation in McCordsville, Indiana. The new deployments will occur in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Texas, and California. Additionally, Ranpak granted Walmart a warrant to purchase up to 22.5 million shares of its common stock at an exercise price of $6.8308 per share. This warrant is part of a broader commercial arrangement, with vesting contingent upon Walmart’s cumulative spend with Ranpak reaching $300 million. These developments highlight Ranpak’s ongoing collaboration with Walmart and its focus on expanding automated packaging solutions.

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